I’m limping towards the finish line at 10 under, so it’s
time for a big breakthrough week. 8-3 is the magic number in the AFC, as four
teams in three divisions share that mark. And then there are the 11-0 Packers
and their chase for perfection. Will the Giants, as they did to the Broncos in
98, spoil the dream? And, like the old days of 2007, the Patriots are favored
by 20 points. Needless to say the Colts-Patriots rivalry has lost its luster
without Peyton Manning. Now, the picks:
Last week: 8-8
Season: 79-89-8
Atlanta (-3) at Houston
Analysis: The
sky is falling in Houston. Matt Schaub, now Matt Leinart. Third-string rookie
T.J. Yates gets the call against the Falcons, as the Texans try to hang on for
dear life in the AFC South. Still, one can dream: The Texans currently hold the
AFC’s top playoff spot. But a rookie quarterback against a playoff-caliber team
like Atlanta is a risky proposition. The Falcons are quietly moving up the NFC
ranks, and they are catching Houston at just the right time. The other shoe
almost certainly drops for the Texans. The pick: Falcons.
Carolina at Tampa Bay (-3)
Analysis: The
Panthers finally shook that road losing streak last week, albeit against the
winless Colts. Tampa Bay is a major disappointment, losing five straight after
a 4-2 start. It’s been a bit of an embarrassing time for Josh Freeman, as it
was revealed he injured his thumb at a gun range. Now, a shoulder injury may keep him out of action and force Josh Johnson to start. The Panthers don’t really know how to win yet, but perhaps like the Lions last year, they can garner some late season momentum to propel them into 2012. The
pick: Panthers.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-6.5)
Analysis: The
Bengals are coming back to earth, nearly losing to the Browns at home last week
after two straight losses to AFC North contenders. The Steelers are rolling,
and got a bit of a wakeup call last week nearly losing to the woeful Chiefs.
They will assert themselves against a young Bengals team that is fortunate to
have made it this far. The pick: Steelers.
Denver at Minnesota (-1)
Analysis: Tebow
Mania keeps on rolling. The Broncos are 5-1 with him as a starter, and they are
heading to Minnesota to face the bumbling Vikings. Christian Ponder is
experiencing growing pains, and the Vikings have completely collapsed since the
2009 NFC Championship Game. You’d have to ride the hot hand of the Broncos
here. The pick: Broncos.
Indianapolis at New England (-20)
Analysis: Just
like in 2007, the Patriots are 20+ point favorites. That’s because the Colts
are proving to be one of the worst teams in recent memory. Indianapolis
continues its surge towards imperfection, with brutal games at New England at
Baltimore the next two weeks before finishing with three games against the AFC
South. New England is on one of those rolls and seems destined to go 8-0 in the
second half for the second consecutive year. If Bill Belichick decides to run
up the score as usual, New England could hit 50 here. The only suspense is
whether the Colts will even crack double-digits. The pick: Patriots.
Kansas City at Chicago (-7)
Analysis: The
Chiefs haven’t scored a touchdown with Tyler Palko, who couldn’t even cut it in
the UFL. That should make Bears fans feel a little better Sunday with the
inexperienced Caleb Hanie at the helm. The Bears don’t figure to light up the
scoreboard, but Kansas City’s putrid offense won’t be able to do much of anything
against Chicago in this one. The pick: Bears.
New York Jets (-3) at Washington
Analysis: The
Jets think they actually have a chance at the playoffs after barely surviving
the Bills at home last week. Silly Rex Ryan. The Skins are used to being
December spoilers, and are fresh off a nice road win at Seattle. Mark Sanchez
got fans off his back for one week, but a road game against a solid defense
like Washington could have them clamoring for Mark Brunell again. A
low-scoring, ugly game is to be expected, and the Jets have simply shown they
don’t have the moxie of the last two years when they reached the AFC title
game. The pick: Redskins.
Oakland at Miami (-3)
Analysis: The
Dolphins are favored by three points? Wow. The 7-4 Raiders are getting no love
against the 3-8 Dolphins, who admittedly are playing better ball since their
0-7 start, especially on defense. But Oakland actually has a quarterback, a
competent coach, and a chance at the playoffs. Tony Sparano is a lame-duck
coach with a lame-duck football team, meaning the Silver and Black seize this
opportunity to keep their lead in the AFC West. The pick: Raiders.
Tennessee at Buffalo (-1)
Analysis: Did
anyone really expect the Bills to keep this up all year? The Titans are the
surprise team that has sustained, and with Houston down to T.J. Yates at
quarterback, this is their chance to make a move. They are getting the reeling
Bills at the right time, as Buffalo has dropped four straight and six of eight.
Chris Johnson is back on a roll, and the Bills don’t figure to slow that roll
one bit. The pick: Titans.
Baltimore (-6.5) at Cleveland
Analysis: Ravens
fans should be nervous: The Browns are a bad football team. Cleveland, at 4-7,
is as dangerous a foe as the Ravens will face the rest of the way. Baltimore
never ceases to amaze in its ability to play down to its competition, meaning
the Browns, nearly upset winners in Cincinnati last week, could pose problems
for the Ravens. Their anemic offense will make an upset difficult, but there is
no doubt the Ravens let down their guard enough to keep the Browns in the game.
The pick: Browns.
Dallas (-4.5) at Arizona
Analysis: See
above. The Cowboys should be as wary of the 4-7, winners-of-two-straight
Cardinals as any team they will face in December. A trip to the desert means a
chance to extend their NFC East lead, but they will have to slow the red-hot
Beanie Wells, who ripped off 227 yards on the ground last week. Granted, the
Cowboys aren’t the Rams, but they need to be wary of a letdown coming off a
close call on Thanksgiving. They are only 4-5 in their last nine games coming
off Turkey Day. The pick: Cowboys.
Green Bay (-6.5) at New York Giants
Analysis: Is
this the 1998 déjà vu Giants fans are hoping for? That year, the defending
champion Broncos were the league’s last unbeaten team and nearly to the finish
line at 13-0, but slipped up against the 5-8 Giants, 20-16. This year’s Packers
are 11-0 and seemingly scoring at will, while Big Blue is feeling just that,
having lost three straight after their usual 6-2 start. New York was hammered
Monday night by the Saints, 49-24, leaving many wondering if Tom Coughlin has
lost this team (actually, it was just Tiki Barber wondering that, although it
is a fair assumption). The Giants’ pass rush is their best hope to ruffle Aaron
Rodgers’ feathers, because the offense doesn’t figure to score enough points to
keep up. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Packers just blowing past everyone on
the way to 16-0, and as the Giants showed in 2007, they will put up a fight
against teams chasing perfection, as they nearly stopped the Patriots in the
season finale (they got their revenge in the Super Bowl, however). The Packers
are more likely than not to get to 12-0, but the Giants should muster enough
pride and effort to hang tough. The pick: Giants.
St. Louis at San Francisco (-13)
Analysis: The
eight-game losing streak a thing of the past, clinching the NFC West is the
agenda for Sunday. Too bad Dana Stubblefield isn’t around, but I’ll say it for
him: Same old sorry a** Rams. St. Louis, at 2-9, is a hapless bunch scoring
less than 13 points per game, and the 49ers, well-rested from a physical match
with Baltimore in the Harbaugh Bowl, won’t have any sympathy. The pick:
49ers.
Detroit at New Orleans (-9)
Analysis: The
Lions will be Suh-less heading into New Orleans, bad news for a sputtering team
facing perhaps the league’s most lethal offense. The Saints are 8-3 but need to
keep their one-game lead over Atlanta in the NFC South, while the Lions are
hanging on for dear life at 7-4 after a 5-0 start. Detroit, in addition to
being without Suh, have virtually no running game, putting all the pressure on
Matthew Stafford. Detroit’s weak secondary could be in for a long night against
a Saints team that blasted them in the 2009 opener, 45-27, in their last
meeting. Still, this is one of those call-me-crazy picks, but the Lions put up
enough of a fight to keep it within one score. The pick: Lions.
San Diego (-3) at Jacksonville
Analysis: What
a Monday night dud ESPN is stuck with. They will have another one next week
with the Rams-Seahawks tilt, but for now they can yap about the end of the Jack
Del Rio era and the downfall of the once-proud Chargers. The Mel Tucker era
begins with a legitimate shot at victory, but can Luke McCown put up the points
that Blaine Gabbert didn’t? The Chargers have lost six in a row for the first
time since the Mike Riley days of 2001, when they lost their final nine games
of that season. It’s hard to pick either team here, but while the Jags had an
inspired effort in their last Monday nighter in upsetting the Ravens, things
are too much of a mess there to think the Bolts won’t finally snap their skid. The
pick: Chargers.
Upset of the Week: REDSKINS
over JETS. These teams don’t figure to put on an exciting show, but the
Redskins are likely breathing a little easier after breaking their six-game
skid against the Seahawks last Sunday, while the Jets were fortunate to escape
the reeling Bills at home. New York has just one road win this year, and with
their hopes of finally overtaking the Patriots in the AFC East officially shot,
they may be out of steam.
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