Week 4 breakdown

History has been
in the making so far in 2011. The Bills trailed by 18 or more the
past two weeks and rallied to win, the first time in history that’s
happened. The Vikings have led their first three games at halftime
and have held double-digit leads in each, and lost each one, an NFL
first. And the Dallas Cowboys have officially put their fans into
cardiac arrest with an NFL-record nine consecutive games decided by
three points or less. Once again Week 4 is a measuring stick for
teams like Houston, Oakland, and Detroit. We have three unbeatens,
with the Lions and Bills being among the most unlikely participants
in that group. And the Green Bay Packers, the other unbeaten, just
keep rolling. What’s in store for Week 4? Let’s have a look:

Last week: 8-8

Season: 21-24-3

Buffalo (-3) at
Cincinnati

Analysis: This has
the feel of a trap game for the 3-0 Bills, but they have beaten Cincy
nine straight and the Bengals were anemic on offense last week,
failing to score a touchdown in their 13-8 loss. Consecutive rallies
from three-score deficits have the Bills believing, and there is no
reason to think they won’t repeat their offensive performance from
2010 at Paul Brown Stadium, when they rallied from 28-7 down to win
49-31. The pick: Bills.

Carolina at
Chicago (-6.5)

Analysis: The
Bears are reeling after their opening day thumping of Atlanta, while
Carolina cracked the win column a week ago for just the third time
since 2009. Now, they look to win a road game for the first time in
two years and may be in the right spot against slumping Chicago to
make a game of this one. Cam Newton has outperformed Jay Cutler this
year, and former Bears TE Greg Olsen may have something in store for
his old mates and former OC Mike Martz, whom he felt slighted him in
the offense during his tenure. The pick: Panthers.

Detroit at Dallas
(-1)

Analysis: The
Lions have won seven straight overall and four straight on the road.
Their last road loss? Last November 21 in Dallas. The Cowboys have
played nine straight nailbiters, each game being decided by three
points or less. The last breather they had? Last November 21 vs.
Detroit. Something may have to give here, but the Lions are riding
the momentum of last week’s big comeback in Minnesota and Tony Romo
is banged up. The Cowboys failed to crack the end zone last week and
Detroit can put up more points than Washington did, so the Lions
should get to 4-0 here. The pick: Lions.

Minnesota (-1.5)
at Kansas City

Analysis: The
Vikings have been outscored 64-6 in the second half this year in
blowing three consecutive halftime leads, but the Chiefs were abysmal
in getting outscored 89-10 in weeks one and two. They were
competitive last week, nearly knocking off San Diego, but may not
have an answer for Adrian Peterson. And if they get behind Minnesota,
they don’t have the offensive weaponry to do what the Chargers, Bucs,
and Lions did to the Vikings before them. Look for Adrian Peterson to
have a big day here. The pick: Vikings.

New Orleans (-7)
at Jacksonville

Analysis: The
Saints and their fans will never forget the team’s last visit to
Jacksonville. Trailing 20-13 with seven seconds left and needing a
win to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive, New Orleans pulled
off one of the greatest plays in NFL history, executing a number of
perfect laterals for a miracle touchdown in what became known as “The
River City Relay”. However, John Carney missed the extra point and
the Saints lost, 20-19, and they missed the postseason as a result.
This time, Drew Brees shouldn’t have any problems moving the ball on
a weak Jaguars defense, but Maurice Jones-Drew could come around and
this has the feel of a trap game that could put the Saints back on
their heels a bit. New Orleans should get the win, but it won’t be as
easy as everyone thinks. The pick: Jaguars.

Pittsburgh at
Houston (-3.5)

Analysis: The
Texans are hoping that they aren’t following last year’s script. They
began 2-0 only to have their defense falter in game three, and
despite getting to 4-2, they finished 6-10. Pittsburgh is rolling
again at 2-1 despite 10 turnovers in three weeks, and being a road
underdog certainly serves the defending AFC champs well. A tough spot
for Houston here after giving up 40 points to New Orleans last week.
The pick: Steelers.

San Francisco at
Philadelphia (-9)

Analysis: Hard to
believe the “Dream Team” is 1-2, and Michael Vick is certainly
dinged. The 49ers are sort of playing with house money at a
surprising 2-1, and the Eagles are desperate with the seat warming
for both Vick and Andy Reid. Look for the Eagles to step it up big
here as they have had their way with the 49ers in recent years,
having beaten them four straight. The pick: Eagles.

Tennessee at
Cleveland (-1)

Analysis: What a
big win for the Browns last week, sealing the Dolphins’ fate in the
final minute to improve to 2-1 for the first time in nine years. Now
they look to go to 3-1 for the first time in a decade against a
Tennessee team that is also a surprising 2-1, but could be reeling
from losing its top big-play threat last week when Kenny Britt was
sidelined for the season with a knee injury. That could be a big
factor in this game as the Browns have some positive karma going
under Pat Shurmur. The pick: Browns.

Washington (-2) at
St. Louis

Analysis: A year
ago in a similar spot, the 0-2 Rams put up 30 points on Washington to
get their first win of the year. Sam Bradford is hurting and needs
Steven Jackson back in the lineup ASAP, but the Redskins could be a
little emotionally stung from losing such a hard-fought game last
Monday night in Dallas and having to go back on the road on a short
week. The 0-3 Rams are desperate, and the other shoe may drop here
for Rex Grossman after a nice start. The pick: Rams.

Atlanta (-4.5) at
Seattle

Analysis: Talk
about two teams with completely different feels at 1-2. The Seahawks
finally cracked the win column against Arizona a week ago after two
dismal losses, while Atlanta has nearly matched its 2010 loss total
already. But the Falcons, like the Eagles, are desperate for a
turnaround, and this could be the spot to do it despite the long
travel to the Pacific Northwest. Atlanta rolled up there 34-18 last
year in December and this year could be quite similar. The pick:
Falcons.

New York Giants
(-1.5) at Arizona

Analysis: The
Giants have fond memories of University of Phoenix stadium, having
won Super Bowl XLII there and also beating the Cardinals in 2008.
They looked awful strong beating the Eagles a week ago and are back
on track at 2-1, while the Cardinals are reeling from losing to
woeful Seattle a week ago. The number seems too low here, as the
Giants should be favored by more. The pick: Giants.

Denver at Green
Bay (-12)

Analysis: The Pack
are rolling, having won nine straight dating to late last year, while
the Broncos are just looking to find their identity. Might we see Tim
Tebow in this one? The Broncos’ defense has been solid and that could
be the one saving grace to keep it somewhat respectable in this one.
Otherwise, Green Bay goes to 4-0. The pick: Broncos.

Miami at San Diego
(-7)

Analysis: The
Dolphins are up against it at 0-3 and Tony Sparano’s job may be on
the line. Fortunately the Chargers are a patsy of a 2-1 team that
never plays well in the first half, so this could be the spot for the
Dolphins to save their season, if only for a week. Daniel Thomas may
find success running, but the key will be whether the Dolphins can
get to Philip Rivers. The Chargers were lucky to escape the Chiefs
last week, and the Dolphins are a better squad than Kansas City, so
an upset could be looming here. The pick: Dolphins.

New England (-4.5)
at Oakland

Analysis: We’re
not sure about the Raiders, although we think they are for real, but
one thing we know for certain: The Patriots are lethal off a loss.
Especially blowing a 21-0 lead in Buffalo. New England has lost
consecutive games just twice since 2002, and could be ready to take
out their frustrations on the Raiders. Oakland’s saving grace will be
Darren McFadden’s running and whether Richard Seymour can make an
impact against his old mates. Oakland should hang in for a while, but
too much firepower from New England and no answer for Wes Welker
(16-216 last week) spells doom for the Silver and Black. The pick:
Patriots.

New York Jets at
Baltimore (-3.5)

Analysis: The
Ravens have only lost once to the Jets in their history and are 3-0
at home against New York, 0-1 in the midst of a brutal three-game
road-trip that ends in New England next week. Mark Sanchez was
battered last week and could find more of the same in Baltimore
against a Ravens team that is always so tough at home. Baltimore held
New York out of the end zone in their season-opening match last year
and could do the same this time around. The pick: Ravens.

Indianapolis at
Tampa Bay (-10)

Analysis: Eight
years ago when these teams met on a Monday night in Tampa it was
Dungy Bowl I. The Colts completely a miraculous comeback from 35-14
down with four minutes to go, winning in overtime 38-35 over the
then-defending-champion Buccaneers. But no Peyton Manning and no Tony
Dungy this time around, and the Colts’ quarterback quandary won’t be
their only concern here. LeGarrette Blount could run roughshod over a
soft Colts run D and the Bucs have their roll back in winning two
straight. This one won’t be nearly as close as Sunday night, when the
Colts were only able to hang in because the Steelers handed them
three gift turnovers. The pick: Buccaneers.

Upset of the
Week: DOLPHINS over CHARGERS. Miami could lose its head coach if it
starts 0-3, and the Chargers are hardly mentally tough, especially
early in the year. Lucky to escape Kansas City last week, the
Chargers are a shell of the team everyone thinks they are, and could
have their hands full with Miami rookie RB Daniel Thomas. As long as
Chad Henne doesn’t hand the game over (always a distinct
possibility), Miami should crack the win column and pull the upset.

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