Breaking down the games for Week 3

I wasn’t exactly
on point last week, going 5-9-2, although the late games brought me
back a bit (thanks for showboating, Jesse Holley). The aerial
assaults and scoring barrages continue, a trend that looks like it’s
here to stay. Week 3 features several perennial also-rans playing in
big games looking to show they are for real (see: Detroit, Buffalo,
Houston). 2-0 is great for those teams, but stepping up to a real
challenge is what truly makes believers. And now, a breakdown of the
games:

Last week: 5-9-2
Season: 13-16-3
 

Denver at
Tennessee (-6.5)

Analysis: The
Broncos’ lone road win of 2010 came in Tennessee last October, and
John Fox needs to win a game like this to begin to turn things
around. Tennessee was impressive in dismantling Baltimore last week
and should be able to have a productive offensive day against the
Broncos, but Denver has had the upper hand lately in this series,
winning the last three meetings. This one could be closer as a young
team like Tennessee doesn’t always thrive in the new position of
being expected to win.
The pick: Broncos.

Detroit (-3.5) at
Minnesota

Analysis: The
Lions haven’t won in Minnesota since 1997, and they haven’t been 3-0
since 1980. But they are making believers each week, having now won
six straight dating to last year. The Vikings had a big second-half
letdown last week against Tampa Bay and this may finally be the time
the tide turns in this mostly-one-sided series.
The pick:
Lions.

Houston at New
Orleans (-4)

Analysis: Houston
can prove to a lot of people they are for real with a win in New
Orleans. The Saints bounced back nicely a week ago and this spot
might feel familiar to them. A year ago they began 2-0 and hosted an
Atlanta team looking to make its mark. In that game they let the
Falcons off the hook and lost in overtime. The Texans have never
started 3-0 or made the playoffs for that matter, and while they have
the look of a team that can run away with the AFC South this year,
this task may be too tall for them.
The pick: Saints.

Jacksonville at
Carolina (-3.5)

Analysis: It’s
first-round quarterback against first-round quarterback, as Blaine
Gabbert makes his first career start for the Jags against Cam Newton
and his back-to-back 400+ yard performances. The Panthers still need
to learn how to win, and this might be the spot against a Jaguars
team that was woeful last week and could be the same with Gabbert
under center this week.
The pick: Panthers.

Miami at Cleveland
(-2.5)

Analysis: Thank
heavens for the Dolphins they are on the road. They are 1-11 in their
last 12 home games, a sentiment long shared by Cleveland. The Browns
are looking to start 2-1 for the first time since 2002 and could find
offensive success against the Dolphins’ porous defense. Still, they
haven’t proven anything yet, and Miami, who has started 0-2 for the
sixth time since 2004, has their backs to the wall and should come
out swinging.
The pick: Dolphins.

New England (-9)
at Buffalo

Analysis: The
Patriots have won 15 straight against the normally hapless Bills, but
Buffalo is off to a surprising 2-0 start this year. But history is on
New England’s side, as the Patriots are rolling with four straight
14+ point wins dating to last season and they have won their last
seven meetings with the Bills in Buffalo by an average of 23 points.
The Bills have not truly risen to a challenge in over a decade, so no
reason to think they’d start now.
The pick: Patriots.

New York Giants at
Philadelphia (-9)

Analysis: The
Eagles have won six straight in this series, none more heartbreaking
for the Giants than last year’s rally from a 21-point fourth quarter
deficit to win on DeSean Jackson’s punt return with no time left.
Michael Vick is returning from a concussion and the Eagles are
returning from blowing a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to Atlanta last
Sunday night, while the Giants are breathing a little easier after
dispatching the Rams on Monday night. New York could find some
offensive success against an Eagles defense that has been shaky thus
far, and with Vick not at full strength, the Giants will make this a
game all the way through. The pick: Giants.

 

San Francisco at
Cincinnati (-3)

Analysis: The
Bengals and 49ers were both game last week but fell just short of
2-0, so the question is which quarterback doesn’t play worse in a
battle of mediocre signal-callers. Andy Dalton and Alex Smith aren’t
exactly a marquee matchup, so the running games could be key here.
Frank Gore and Cedric Benson could both find running lanes a week
after sub-par performances. A close game is to be expected between
these two.
The pick: 49ers.

Baltimore (-4) at
St. Louis

Analysis: The
Ravens are 1-6 in their last seven dome games and were embarrassed by
Tennessee last week, but things have been uglier for the Rams in
2011. St. Louis could again be without Steven Jackson and Sam
Bradford and his underwhelming receiving corps may have trouble
duplicating what Tennessee did to Baltimore’s secondary a week ago.
Joe Flacco could help keep this game close, but ultimately the Ravens
should bounce back here.
The pick: Ravens.

Kansas City at San
Diego (-14.5)

Analysis: Could
things be going any worse for the Chiefs? Outscored 89-10 the first
two weeks, they travel to San Diego to take on a Chargers team
looking to bounce back from its annual whipping from the Patriots.
The Chiefs were pounded 31-0 at Qualcomm Stadium last year when Matt
Cassel is out, and 43-17 the year before. They should play with a
little more heart than in the first two weeks, but with Jamaal
Charles now out and the Chargers looking to rebound, it could still
be tough for the Chiefs to keep it respectable.
The pick:
Chargers.

New York Jets
(-3.5) at Oakland

Analysis: The
Jets won 38-0 in their last trip to Oakland, but overall their
history on the West Coast hasn’t been very good. The Raiders were
heartbroken a week ago but have been resilient the last year or so,
and could find success running the ball against the Jets. Meanwhile,
Mark Sanchez has been average at best and his first road start of
2011 could be a tough one. An upset is a real possibility here.
The
pick: Raiders.

Arizona (-3) at
Seattle

Analysis: It’s
hard to believe the Seahawks won a playoff game last year. Tarvaris
Jackson looks lost, and the Seahawks are in danger of their first 0-3
start since 2002. Arizona is somewhat of an enigma, surviving Cam
Newton’s monster debut in Week 1 before losing a late lead a week ago
to Washington. Kevin Kolb hasn’t exactly wowed anyone yet, but he
shouldn’t have to against the woeful Seahawks. The defense hasn’t
been terrible for Seattle, but the offense has been anemic, meaning
Arizona’s opportunistic defense should pounce. The pick:
Cardinals.

Atlanta at Tampa
Bay (-1.5)

Analysis: What
a big win for the Falcons last week over the Eagles and Michael Vick,
but Tampa Bay also pulled off a big comeback against Minnesota to get
to 1-1. Atlanta swept Tampa Bay last year and four of the last five
meetings between these clubs have been decided by six points or less,
but Michael Turner looked like he meant business last week and could
be the X-factor for the Falcons in this spot.
The pick:
Falcons.

Green Bay (-3.5)
at Chicago

Analysis: The last
six meetings between these clubs have been decided by a touchdown or
less, including last season’s NFC Championship Game. The Packers won
and knocked out Jay Cutler early with a knee injury, sending the fans
and media into a frenzy over whether he was really hurt that badly.
This is an enormous game for Chicago, both for Cutler’s psyche and
for the Bears’ 2011 hopes. Green Bay’s defense has looked somewhat
vulnerable, and with this being the intense rivalry that it is –
not to mention the oldest in the NFL – the Bears should at least
keep it close. They seem to thrive when everyone is picking against
them. The pick: Bears.

Pittsburgh (-10.5)
at Indianapolis

Analysis: Kerry
Collins may want to consider returning to retirement before this one.
The Steelers are back after dominating the pathetic Seahawks a week
ago, while the Colts are experiencing “It’s a Wonderful Life” as
they wade aimlessly through 2011 without Peyton Manning. Considered a
marquee matchup when the schedule came out, the Steelers are now
licking their chops waiting to attack Indy’s anemic offense. This one
could get out of hand pretty quickly. The pick: Steelers.

Washington at
Dallas (-4.5)

Analysis: Love him
or hate him, you’ve got to tip your cap to Tony Romo. Leading a
comeback with a punctured lung and broken rib isn’t a cinch. He could
play Monday night against the surprising Skins, who covered in both
meetings last year and look like a confident bunch behind Rex
Grossman. But the Cowboys should rally around the gritty Romo and
last week’s inspiring overtime win over the 49ers, meaning the bubble
will burst for the undefeated Skins. The pick: Cowboys.

Upset of the
Week: RAIDERS over JETS. The Jets have had some recent slipups on
trips to the West Coast, and the Raiders defense could pose a
challenge for Mark Sanchez and a Jets offense that didn’t have to do
much last week against woeful Jacksonville. The Raiders should be
feeling the sting of their last-minute loss to the Bills last week
and ready to prove that they have taken the next step. Beating the
Jets with New England looming next would be a great start.

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