NFL Week 16 Picks: Who Will Surge Ahead?

We’ve hit the proverbial home stretch and some have hit the rookie wall, but such is life in the NFL. If you’re like me (and you’re probably not), you consider Week 16 to be the new Week 17, because it’s the final week where we get to enjoy non-divisional games. That means the last unpredictable matchups before January will play out this Sunday, and in a year where I’ve scaled back on picks — and I’ll consider that a win because this has been as unpredictable a year as we’ve seen in ages — I’m feeling (somewhat) confident about my Week 16 predictions. Without further ado:

Titans at Jaguars (-3.5)
Another QB switch for the Titans and a possible one for Jaguars. Who has the edge? Who cares? But the Jags gave a spirited effort last week and the Titans didn’t, and Tennessee isn’t good enough to sweep anyone, even Jacksonville. PICK: JAGUARS.

Eagles (-8.5) at Redskins
Is a collapse imminent for Philadelphia? Probably not, because the Redskins are awful, so that helps. But 8.5 points is a lot for a team with all the pressure on them. The Redskins will find a way to lose by a gentlemanly seven or eight. The first meeting was tight, 37-34, Eagles. PICK: REDSKINS.

Chargers at 49ers (-1.5)
The Chargers are fading (what else is new) and of course so are the 49ers, but they have to have a little pride against their California neighbors to the south. This is likely Jim Harbaugh’s final homestand, and the slumping Chargers just lost Keenan Allen. PICK: 49ERS.

Vikings at Dolphins (-7)
Welcome to every December for Miami, another swoon. The Vikings showed heart last week and may have an upset in them to officially put the nail in the Dolphins’ coffin. PICK: VIKINGS.

Packers (-10.5) at Buccaneers
The ticked-off Packers have no excuses against a team that hasn’t won at home. These two used to be NFC Central rivals, but the Buccaneers have fallen on hard times, and the Packers need to bounce back to keep pace with the Lions. PICK: PACKERS.

Lions (-7) at Bears
The upset might be trendy, but the Bears are so awful I just can’t pick them. As a friend of mine who is a Lions fan pointed out, this Bears team looks like the old Lions of the Matt Millen era. The Lions tore the Bears apart, 31-3, after falling behind 14-3 on Thanksgiving. PICK: Lions.

Falcons at Saints (-6.5)
The Falcons won the first meeting in one of the game’s of the year, and they’re 4-0 in the division, but the Saints got things right on Monday after a shakeup. 6.5 points is a little steep for a team that hasn’t won a home game since October. PICK: Falcons.

Patriots (-10.5) at Jets
The Jets held the ball for 41 minutes and rushed for 100 yards more than the Pats back in October on a short week, but a two-game winning streak for Gang Green? Now THAT’S blasphemy. Still, you have to wonder if Rex Ryan can muster up something good in his final home game to keep the game close. PICK: Jets.

Chiefs at Steelers (-3.5)
Remember the 2005 Steelers? Sure you do. They were 7-5 and then won eight straight, including the Super Bowl. One commonality of these teams is that they’ve played down to their competition, but the Steelers are finding their groove right now, especially on offense. PICK: Steelers.

Browns at Panthers (-3.5)
Cam Newton won’t be 100%, but he’s better than Johnny Manziel at 30%. There will be some serious growing pains these last two weeks for Cleveland, and Carolina can still win the NFC South with a losing record. PICK: Panthers.

Ravens (-6.5) at Texans
The Texans are choosing between two quarterbacks that haven’t taken a snap for them this year, and although the Ravens are unpredictable, they got a wakeup call playing things too close to the vest against Jacksonville and should come out stronger this week. PICK: Ravens.

Giants at Rams (-5)
This is my lock of the week (seriously). The Giants are playing better, but the Rams haven’t given up a touchdown in three straight games. The Giants haven’t won three straight games all year, and I don’t see them starting now. The Rams may be playing their final game in St. Louis. PICK: Rams.

Bills (-6) at Raiders
Gotta take the Bills here, because it’s their last win of the season. I don’t even trust them to have the intestinal fortitude to win against a resting Patriots team in Foxborough, since they haven’t won there since beating Drew Bledsoe in 2000. The Bills’ defense is too good to suffer a major letdown, even if Kyle Orton does. PICK: Bills.

Colts at Cowboys (-3)
Plain and simple, the Cowboys can run the ball and the Colts can’t stop it. That doesn’t change even if DeMarco Murray is out, and this Cowboys team looks like the 2009 one that actually played well in December and even won a playoff game. The Colts can’t compete with the elite teams, and Dallas is pretty good, if not elite. PICK: Cowboys.

Seahawks (-9) at Cardinals
Sentimentally, give me the Cards. Logically, I’ll take the Seahawks. Ryan Lindley looked awful on Thursday and the last time he played the Seahawks, Arizona lost by 58 points. Both defenses are outstanding, but I foresee another game like the first meeting, which was 19-3 Seahawks. Seattle has given up just 27 points over the last four games. PICK: Seahawks.

Broncos (-3.5) at Bengals
This is a tricky one. The Bengals look great at times, but I don’t trust them against top-notch teams. Still, for a Denver team that has had a few non-divisional road letdowns (like against St. Louis), I defer to the Patriots theory, which is that in this year of perfection for Tom Terrific and Co., if it can somehow benefit them, it will. That would mean wrapping up homefield advantage a week early with a Denver loss. Peyton Manning has never lost to Cincinnati in his career. Due theory anybody? Okay, it’s just me then. PICK: Bengals.

FINAL RECORD: 11-5