In case you missed it, DraftAmerica returned to the NFL picks spectrum in glorious fashion in Week 9, picking right up where we left off in 2016. A 4-1 record within my “locks of the week” spectrum means that I am 49-19 against the spread since the start of last season. So forgive me for tooting my horn a little bit considering that even the top dogs in the handicapping industry would have a tough time sustaining a 72% success rate.
Without further ado, here are my best bets for Week 10 of the NFL, starting tonight:
Last week: 4-1
Seattle (-6.5) at Arizona
Why does this spread feel way too big? Granted, I hate taking games at 2.5 or 6.5, but Seattle is a prohibitive favorite despite looking like a far cry from the dominant Seahawks teams of recent years. Drew Stanton really isn’t much of a drop-off from Carson Palmer at all, and the road teams seem to really be up against it on a short week on the road. The Hawks just lost at home to a depleted Redskins team and still seem to be searching for their true identity. The Cardinals have been disappointing thus far, but did score a road win in San Francisco last week. Seattle figures to have just enough to get by, but it will really have to earn it against a division rival desperate to stay in the hunt. Pick: Cardinals.
Minnesota (-1.5) at Washington
The Vikings are one of the league’s biggest surprises, going 6-2 in the first half despite mostly starting Case Keenum at quarterback and losing Dalvin Cook to a torn ACL. But this Redskins team is showing something you rarely see in DC sports teams these days: moxie. The potential return of a few healthy players missing in the team’s come-from-behind win in Seattle should help them get past the Vikings, who have shown quite a bit of moxie of their own. Pick: Redskins.
Green Bay at Chicago (-6)
The Packers looked absolutely pathetic Monday night and are running a legitimate risk of losing out at this point. The Bears are eager to turn the tables after a blowout loss at Lambeau in Week 4, and should get their revenge with Aaron Rodgers out of action. Mitchell Trubisky has a long way to go, but he seems to be improving ever-so-slightly each week. Pick: Bears.
Cincinnati at Tennessee (-4.5)
How did the line on this game drop from 6 to 4.5? The Titans are an above-average team gaining some momentum, and the Bengals are gutless wonders (more on that below). Tennessee finds itself in a dogfight with Jacksonville(!) for AFC South supremacy. The Bengals’ offense will have a little more success than it did against Jacksonville’s stingy D, but their defense will also give up more points to a more potent Titans offense. Pick: Titans.
Dallas at Atlanta (-3)
I am basically just going to pick against this soft, gutless-wonder Falcons team until they prove me wrong. They “pulled a Falcons” last week, although this time around they only squandered a 10-point lead on the road in Carolina. It also hardly seems like the Falcons have developed a homefield advantage in their new digs, and the Cowboys are picking up steam. Ezekiel Elliott being on the field is bad news for Atlanta, and there should be a sense of urgency for Dallas with Philadelphia idle and the two teams set to meet the following week. A sense of urgency is something the Falcons would know nothing about. Pick: Cowboys.
New York Giants (-2.5) at San Francisco
Is THIS the week? The 0-9 49ers have hung tight in a bunch of games, and we should be ready to see Jimmy Garropolo at any moment even though C.J. Beathard is getting the starting nod again. The Giants have seemed to mail it in and this might be the end of the line for Eli Manning. Go with the more desperate team here, as the 1-7 Giants don’t have to worry about making infamous history. Pick: 49ers.
Miami at Carolina (-9)
Yippee – we get to watch the league’s weakest offense in prime time for a third straight week! Adam Gase deserves a medal of honor for guiding the league’s lowest-scoring offense and 31st-ranked unit in terms of yardage to a 4-4 mark after eight games. But the losing will continue for Miami against the league’s best statistical defense in Carolina. The Panthers are basically the anti-Falcons, a hard-fighting team with some quality wins under their belt. It’s hard to imagine Miami getting past the low teens in terms of points, and it looks primed to give the Panthers a defensive score. Pick: Panthers.