MLB Wild Card Round Preview

It felt like October baseball actually started on September 30 with a classic between the Mets and Braves to boost the Amazins into the postseason, which was followed by an Atlanta response to create a double champagne celebration at Truist Park.

Now, both teams will head on the road somewhat spent and depleted, but alas, the playoffs always provide a reset no matter how grueling the road to get there was.

Let’s dive into the four wild card series, which the last two years has seen road teams take five of the eight series:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

(6) Detroit at (3) Houston

My rule of thumb is never bet against the Astros in October. They have reached the ALCS seven straight years for a reason and Yordan Alvarez is indeed on the roster. Tarik Skubal will likely take home Cy Young hardware, but Framber Valdez will be a finalist and has 15 career postseason starts under his belt, while Skubal is making his October debut. Houston simply knows how to win in October, and for as much as AJ Hinch and his Tigers, 31-13 in their last 44 games, would love to take down his old team, it isn’t likely to happen. Pick: Astros in 3.

(5) Kansas City at (4) Baltimore

This didn’t look like as tough of a matchup for the Orioles as Detroit might have been, but the return of Vinnie Pasquantino (he is at least on the ALWC roster) could be massive for Kansas City, in the postseason for the first time since 2015. The starting pitching edge actually favors the Royals, but Baltimore’s offense is at full strength for the first time in months, and the O’s are out to right last year’s wrong when they were swept by Texas in the ALDS after a 101-win season. They will have to fight tooth-and-nail to get by KC, but this should end up as Baltimore’s first postseason series win since 2014, which ultimately ended with them getting swept by the Royals in the ALCS. Pick: Orioles in 3.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

(5) Atlanta at (4) San Diego

The starting pitching for Atlanta has carried them all year and will need to continue to do so in the postseason. The bullpen and offensive edge goes to San Diego, who has had a pretty magical season, turning things around after playing .500 ball for the first 100 games. This definitely has upset alert written all over it, but sentimentally I’m taking San Diego to earn a showdown with Los Angeles in the NLDS for the second time in three years. Pick: Padres in 3.

(6) New York Mets at (3) Milwaukee

The Amazins have defied logic to get here, turning around a miserable start into an almost-improbable postseason berth. The Brewers have often failed in October, but in some ways have also defied the odds in 2024 with a young, talent squad that is eager to prove it belongs. No Central team in either league has reached the World Series since 2016, and as much as I want to take Milwaukee in this spot — especially with a massive edge in the bullpen — it just feels foolish to count the Mets out, and equally silly to pick all four home teams in the wild card round. Pick: Mets in 3.