Super Bowl LX Preview: Wait, Another Rematch?

For the third year in a row, we are seeing a Super Bowl matchup for the second time. Seahawks-Patriots is the 10th matchup to be played more than once on this stage, with only Dallas-Pittsburgh having occurred three times. Malcolm Butler will be the Patriots’ honorary captain, and we have already heard plenty about Sam Darnold seeing ghosts.

These Patriots, with Milton Williams in tow, actually have followed a similar path to last year’s Eagles (with whom Williams won a ring). Both teams began 2-2 (the Pats actually started 1-2). Both lost just one game the rest of the year, in Week 16, blowing a double-digit lead to a division rival, before winning three games to reach the Super Bowl as a No. 2 seed, where they faced a No. 1 seed. Will Williams do the reverse of what Chris Long and LeGarrette Blount did and win a ring with the Eagles and then the Patriots in consecutive years?

Well, not so fast.

Last year, my personal nine-game winning streak of Super Bowl spreads was snapped in grand fashion. Deep down I think I knew the Eagles were the pick, but refused to believe that the Chiefs’ voodoo magic could be disrupted until I saw it. I am still 7-3 straight up in the last 10 Super Bowls, and honestly don’t have a great feel for this one.

My big question is whether these Patriots can be treated as the Tom Brady Patriots? Is there an “aura” like those teams had? Is Mike Vrabel just so damn good as a coach that he can make anything possible? Or is this a Patriots team waiting to be put in their place by a Seattle team that has looked like the best in football all year and just took down two titans — from their own stellar division no less — to get here? The Patriots have beaten three teams with top-five defenses, but it’s also hard to overlook the key players they have been able to avoid with injury, namely Nico Collins and Bo Nix. Will they get their comeuppance against a healthy Seattle team who has a pretty darn good coach of their own in Mike Macdonald?

Teams wearing white, which the Patriots have chosen to do as a nod to their historic 10-0 road record, have won 17 of the last 21 Super Bowls. The Patriots actually experienced one of those losses in Super Bowl LII to the Eagles, but are 4-2 in their history wearing white. They are aiming to be the first franchise to win seven Super Bowls and stand alone in a positive light rather than becoming the first franchise to lose six Super Bowls. Regardless, their incredible success this century has seem them reach two more Super Bowls (10) in the last 25 years alone than any other franchise in the entire Super Bowl era.

If — IF — Sam Darnold can go a third game without committing a turnover, I really like Seattle’s chances. I think New England’s defense is too strong to be on the wrong side of a blowout. Often times we see teams with elite defenses turn Super Bowls into laughers, but those are usually against teams with dominant offenses and average defenses. I’m fairly certain this won’t play out like Super Bowl XLVIII, when the game was essentially won by the Seahawks on the game’s first snap that netted them two points.

For all the talk about Super Bowl XLIX, and whether history will repeat itself, that was 11 years ago. It would have been much more relevant if the same storyline involved the Chiefs and Eagles, who had met just two years prior, but no players from the 2014 classic are on these rosters.

Ultimately, I am taking the “easy” road and calling a close game where, if nothing else, the Patriots cover the spread. There is no Patriots “aura” or “voodoo magic,” they are just a very good team meeting their match in the big game. I do trust Seattle’s defense just a smidge more, and think that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the one receiver in this game who could truly take over.

Despite everything I saw from this franchise for 20 years during the Tom Brady era, I’m leaning with another “revenge” Super Bowl win for the team from the Pacific Northwest.

Prediction: Seahawks 23, Patriots 20 (MVP: Sam Darnold)