Back to the Futures: Best AFC Long-Term Bets

Let’s face it: unless you are, say, James Holzhauer, day-to-day sports betting is for suckers. If you want to make money on professional sports, you need to look at them like stocks. Long-term bets give you better odds, require less initial investment, and allow for cash-outs and hedges to help ensure your losses are minimal, or even better, you guarantee yourself either a break-even or a profit.

On that note, we are deep into the NFL season and should have a better idea of who the “safest” bets are to reach Super Bowl LIX. It is also the time of year when you should beware of the sleeper teams and not shy away from one dark-horse team with longer odds, knowing that Cinderellas, although rare, do happen in sports — even the NFL.

Some teams are overvalued, and you have to trust the eye test when making futures bets. For example, how much can you trust the Chiefs’ threepeat chances given the amount of luck they have required to go 11-1? How much can you trust the Ravens when Lamar Jackson is 2-4 in his playoff career and the Ravens’ road to New Orleans will be just that — potentially all on the road. And how much can you trust the Steelers given their reliance on coaching and defense and the fact that they haven’t reached the big game in nearly a decade and a half?

It is also important to note that if you are lucky enough to be located in a state with a wealth of legal betting options, you need to compare every book’s odds, as they always vary and occasionally one book will give you a steal (either naturally or by way of profit boosts) on a team.

Let’s dive in and examine the odds and how good each team’s value really is (with each team’s best odds, and opening odds):

Buffalo Bills (+220 in BetRivers; Open: +600)

The Bills are hardly a surprise, but they are now the favorite in the AFC at +220. Those are much lower than their 6/1 opening line, but deservedly so. They beat the Chiefs two weeks ago, and while the Ravens hammered them in Week 4, they look like the most (if not only) trustworthy team in the conference. Though Josh Allen has reached only one AFC title game (2020), the eye test should tell you the Bills look like the team to beat right now. They possess the AFC’s best point differential at +131 and have won eight straight games. Moreover, as we remember that sports run in cycles and no run of dominance lasts forever, you’d have to like Buffalo’s chances in a potential rematch with Kansas City. Allen is 0-3 against Patrick Mahomes, but no team has ever won playoff games against the same team on the road in consecutive years (ask the 2022 Bengals how that went), and one of these years, Mahomes will lose twice to the same team in a year. Yes, I said it.

Allen has also defeated Jackson and the Ravens (2020), and one of his other bugaboos, Cincinnati, won’t be in the picture. Confidence: High

Kansas City Chiefs (+250 in FanDuel; Open: +325)

There are a lot of reasons to be wary of the 2024 Chiefs. An 11-1 team without a single win by more than 13 points? Nine one-score wins, and some of the luckiest finishes known to man? Couple all that with the fact that no team has even reached the Super Bowl after going back-to-back, and a difficult closing schedule, and not only is a Super Bowl trip not a lock, an early exit might even be on the table as well.

Mahomes is winning games by himself, and potential reinforcements are on the way in D.J. Humphries and Hollywood Brown. But is that enough? Is the defense good enough to carry KC the way it did the last year? Confidence: Medium.

Baltimore (+460 in FanDuel; Open: +450)

Welcome to our first odds-drop-off in the AFC: the Ravens. Even at 8-5, the season feels like a disappointment for Baltimore, especially given their continued struggles to win close games. Two key losses in particular can be pinned on kicker Justin Tucker, an all-time great having a terrible year. But Jackson, again, is 2-4 lifetime in the playoffs, having lost to both teams ranked above them in the conference. The defense continues to struggle holding leads, and it’s fair to wonder if Tucker can magically flip the switch in the next few weeks. The likelihood of Baltimore having to win at least two, if not three, road games to reach the Super Bowl certainly should give pause. Confidence: Low.

Pittsburgh (+1000 in Bet365; Open: +3500)

The Steelers, as usual, have overachieved. Russell Wilson is rediscovering his old form, which provides real hope in the Steel City. A strong defense and a coach that refuses to have a losing record mean that the Steelers should be taken seriously, even if they haven’t reached a Super Bowl in 14 years. Pittsburgh owns a 1.5-game lead in the AFC North with one game in hand on Baltimore, but a tough closing schedule makes it fair to wonder if they will hold on to that. The Steelers’ final five games are: vs. Browns, at Eagles, at Ravens, vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals. Still, even an 11-6 record may well be enough to earn Pittsburgh the No. 3 seed, which would only require (likely) two road wins to reach the Super Bowl. Confidence: Medium.

Los Angeles Chargers (+1500 in Caesars; Open: +1600)

How seriously can we take this franchise? One Super Bowl appearance, in 1994, and multiple heartbreaks in January. This year’s iteration has shown flashes, especially with a defense that did not allow more than 17 points in its first nine games. But losses to Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore definitely make you wonder if this team is truly ready for primetime. A win this week over Kansas City on the road could raise the confidence level, but short of that, this isn’t worth anything more than a very small pop. Confidence: Very low.

The rest of the field

The only team that feels like a potential dark horse would be Houston (+1600 in BetRivers; Open: +1200), but the Texans have continually looked like a team that plays down to its competition and often shoots itself on the foot. They are young, having only experienced postseason play for the first time in four years last year when they won a wild card game but were outclassed by the Ravens in the divisional round. A win over Buffalo in Week 4 — the Bills’ last loss to date — and near-misses against top-tier teams Detroit and Green Bay, show Houston’s potential, but the idea of C.J. Stroud and Co. winning two road games to reach New Orleans feels far-fetched. Outside of the Texans, the Broncos (+2200) look appealing, but keep in mind no rookie quarterback has ever reached the Super Bowl. The Dolphins (+10000) and Colts (+15000) are not worth it (if they get in at all), even though long odds are always appealing. Cincinnati (+24000) fell off the face of the earth, and while they have an all-world QB, at 4-8 their mathematical odds of even reaching the playoffs are slim to none.