Breaking Down the National League Playoff Field: One Reason Each Team Can Win, One Reason They Can’t

On paper at least, the National League looks like the superior league. You could even argue that the three division leaders would all be the clear-cut best team in the American League, with a possible argument for a fourth.

So in a stacked field, is the NL actually a little more cut-and-dried than the AL? Perhaps, but not definitively.

Let’s look a little closer at the six teams currently in pole position for October, and one argument both for and against each team claiming the Warren C. Giles trophy, in order of their current seed:

1. Milwaukee Brewers

Why they can win: Front-loaded rotation. I know, I know: the Brewers have always been the team to get your hopes up and then let you down. They’ve never won a pennant as an NL team, and it’s been 43 years since their lone World Series appearance. But what’s not to like about this year’s team?

While injuries have contributed to a recent lull after their 14-game winning streak, there is plenty of firepower to give their fans hope. The top of the rotation is very strong with Freddy Peralta, a healthy Brandon Woodruff, and a emerging star in Quinn Priester. If Jacob Misiorowski can return to his midseason form, that is as strong a quartet as just about anyone outside of the Dodgers in the NL. Milwaukee currently boasts the top rotation ERA in the Senior Circuit at 3.53, despite that the fact that it has pitched the eighth-fewest innings in baseball.

The lineup isn’t too shabby either, leading the NL in batting average (.261) and on-base percentage (.334). Also keep in mind that if the Brewers can secure the No. 1 seed, their path to the World Series would only involve one of the Dodgers and Phillies, not both.

And who knows? Maybe the spirit of Bob Uecker will provide a little magic.

Why they can’t win: Recent history. There is understandably a lot of consternation over whether the Brewers can actually take down the titans of the NL. Their two trips to the NLCS this century have resulted in heartbreaking losses, especially Game 7 in 2018. Last year wasn’t much better, when they squandered a 2-0 lead in a winner-take-all game against the Mets. The bullpen has been beat up of late, with a season-ending injury to Shelby Miller and IL stints for Trevor Megill and Nick Mears. While the latter two should be back soon, Milwaukee must be careful not to tax the ‘pen, which they have done at times as the starter’s have delivered the eighth-fewest innings pitched in MLB.

2. Philadelphia Phillies

Why they can win: Veteran presences, lefty-heavy rotation, and homefield advantage. We know about Kyle Schwarber’s incredible season, and once Trea Turner and Alec Bohm return, this Phillies lineup will be in full force and have plenty of thump. Philadelphia is ninth in baseball in home runs, though Schwarber is responsible for nearly 27% of those. But this lineup and team in general has a large number of veterans who have won in October, both with the Phillies and elsewhere. Schwarber (2016 Cubs), Turner (2019 Nationals), and David Robertson (2009 Yankees) have won rings, and a good portion of the Phillies’ roster was there when the team played in the 2022 Fall Classic.

The Phillies, despite the loss of Zack Wheeler, have a deep and lefty-heavy rotation featuring Ranger Suarez, Christopher Sanchez, and Jesus Luzardo. That could loom large against the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Christian Yelich, Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Juan Soto. There is a lot of swing-and-miss stuff between the trio, providing hope that the rotation is in fact deep enough to overcome the loss of Wheeler.

And finally, The Bank. Three years ago when the Phillies broke their 11-year playoff drought, Citizens Bank Park was absolutely electric, with the Phils feeding off the energy en route to a 6-0 start before dropping Games 4 and 5 to the Astros. Overall, Philadelphia is 13-5 at home in the postseason the last three years.

Why they can’t win: Pressure and bullpen. There is no fanbase more agitated when its team loses than Philadelphia (although the Yankees could make an argument). A sluggish start could make the pressure even greater for a Phillies team that is built to win now. The bullpen is also a bit of a concern, even after the additions of Robertson and Jhoan Duran. The Phillies’ pen ERA ranks 22nd in baseball at 4.37 and allowed 69 home runs despite pitching the fewest innings by far. In theory, fatigue is not a factor, but they will be without Jose Alvarado as well.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

Why they can win: Star power galore, dominant rotation, and aura. Yes, I said aura — after all, these are the defending champs with the biggest collection of high-priced superstars, including Shohei Ohtani. Lest we forget that Ohtani is rounding back into the dominant form on the mound he showed before his injury, coupled with yet another 50-home run season. Mookie Betts is red-hot, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith (if healthy) are near the top of the league in batting average, and Tommy Edman is back in the lineup to team up with the likes of Andy Pages, Teoscar Hernandez, and Max Muncy.

Simply put, if the Dodgers’ bullpen can at least hide its warts for enough of October, they have a great chance to repeat, because not only can they slug with the best of them, they have a dominant and healthy rotation, which they have rarely had throughout this run of dominance that started in 2013. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Ohtani are all stringing together stellar starts. Clayton Kershaw is in vintage form, and even Emmet Sheehan has been good (but he’s their No. 6 starter, so why would he garner any attention?).

Why they can’t win: Bullpen. Very quietly, the losses of Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol (who is not officially done but chances of his return are dwindling) have loomed very large as the team has watched the unraveling of Tanner Scott and Blake Treinen. Alex Vesia is back from injury, and there have been flashes of brilliance from young Edgardo Henriquez, but there is waning trust from manager Dave Roberts in Michael Kopech. The team is hoping for a healthy return of trade deadline acquisition Brock Stewart, but it’s fair to wonder if the relief corps can be trusted for an entire month against top-notch competition.

4. Chicago Cubs

Why they can win: Lineup depth and strong left-handed starting pitching. In a similar vein to the Phillies, this is a deep (although not quite as star-studded) lineup with two frontline southpaw starters. Six hitters have topped the 20-HR mark, including Kyle Tucker, whom the club hopes can return from a calf injury in time for the postseason. Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong have slowed down in the second half, but Michael Busch has been one of the season’s breakout stars with 29 home runs, and even the players that haven’t reached that plateau are big offensive contributors like Nico Hoerner (team-leading .301 average) and catcher Carson Kelly (17 HR, .790 OPS).

To boot, the rotation, even with the season-long absence of Justin Steele, has two outstanding southpaws in All-Star Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga (an All-Star last year). Cade Horton is a front-runner for Rookie of the Year, and a healthy Jameson Taillon rounds out a pretty strong unit. There is a lot to like about this Cubs team, which also happens to be the only club in baseball without a four-game losing streak all year.

Why they can’t win: Bullpen. To be clear, the Cubs’ bullpen certainly isn’t bad. It may not even be mediocre. But there are certainly concerns given injuries and ineffectiveness of arms they were counting on. Porter Hodge is back but has had a rough year, and the Ryan Pressly experiment failed so miserably that he was DFA’d at the trade deadline. Breakout sensation Daniel Palencia was excelling as the closer until a shoulder injury (Palencia expects to be back in the coming days), and Drew Pomeranz has a 4.19 second-half ERA after a nearly-flawless first half. But Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, and Andrew Kittredge have all helped pick up the slack, and if they can continue their strong seasons, it will alleviate some potential concerns around this unit.

5. San Diego Padres

Why they can win: Bullpen. The loss of Jason Adam hurts, but Mason Miller being in the fold brings back memories of another reliever with the same surname — Andrew Miller. Though he wasn’t the closer for Cleveland, Andrew Miller was a dominant multi-inning arm that earned ALCS MVP honors, and Mason Miller could have that type of impact in October in helping bridge the gap to closer Robert Suarez.

San Diego’s bullpen numbers are staggering: League-leading 3.09 ERA (first, 0.32 points higher than the next-best team), 1.15 WHIP (by 0.07 points), and .211 BAA (14 points). Fantastic seasons by Adrian Morejon and David Morgan have deepened an already-stout ‘pen, and if San Diego is to go deep into October, they will need to rely heavily on their relief corps.

Why they can’t win: Starting pitching and lack of power. There are concerns over the rotation after Nick Pivetta, as Michael King has struggled from his return from the IL, and Dylan Cease (4.59) and Yu Darvish (5.63) are sporting bloated ERAs. Part of the reason the Padres rely so heavily on their bullpen is because the starters have not been carrying their weight, and for October success, that will need to change.

The lack of power in the lineup also hurts, as the Padres are second-to-last in MLB with just 140 home runs. A year ago, they ranked 10th with 190, and while home runs are not always essential to winning playoff baseball, the threat of them in the lineup is a plus.

6. New York Mets

Why they can win: Experience and Juan Soto. Admittedly, it’s been harder to find valid arguments for the Mets making an October run given their horrid play of late. They are 16-29 after a 62-44 start, as their division hopes were dashed and now they are desperately holding on to the league’s final wild card spot. But the postseason is a chance for a fresh start, and the Mets paid $760 million to one man that they hope can replicate his October heroics from a year ago.

Sure, Soto cannot do it himself. Heck, even Ohtani, as two star players in one, can’t carry his team alone to a World Series. But when Soto is hot, it changes everything for a Mets team reliant on a few other top bats in the lineup. Say what you want about Soto in his first year in Queens, but he has delivered 40 home runs, a league-leading .395 on-base percentage, and 32 stolen bases. Soto, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo have combined to hit 59% of the Mets’ 211 home runs, and even though the Mets possess some solid players around that foursome (Brett Baty and Mark Vientos have 17 HR, and Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte can look great at times), New York will need Soto to lead the charge and the other stars to step up.

Why they can’t win: The pitching staff and injuries. Rookie Nolan McLean has been a revelation, and Clay Holmes has been a pleasant surprise in his conversion to starter, but things elsewhere in the rotation are not good. Sean Manaea, last October’s most dependable starter, has been moved to the bullpen. Kodai Senga has been optioned to the minors for some fine-tuning. David Peterson’s second-half ERA is 5.23. Griffin Canning is done for the year, and Tylor Megill will need to be eased back into action.

And that’s just the rotation.

The bullpen has been a mess outside of Edwin Diaz. Reid Garrett’s second-half ERA is 6.11, Ryne Stanek has scuffled all year, and the team’s 27 blown saves are tied for the second-most in MLB.

Oh by the way, the Mets are now in the MLB record books with 46 pitchers used this season.

In a nutshell, the Mets are going to have to find a couple guys to make major turnarounds in October for them to be a serious threat.

The rest of the field

Arizona, San Francisco, and Cincinnati are all still breathing, as the D-Backs sit 1.5 games behind the Mets and the Giants and Reds two back. Arizona has stayed afloat despite a rash of injuries and trading away several key players, but lest we forget what Torey Lovullo’s club did two years ago as an 84-win afterthought. The D-Backs are as scrappy as anyone, and the bullpen has surprisingly been a strength during their recent surge.

The Giants are finally getting the production they’d hoped for from Rafael Devers, and a veteran-laden rotation led by Logan Webb, Justin Verlander, and Robbie Ray always provides some hope. The bullpen is the third-best in baseball with a 3.47 ERA, despite trading away Camilo Doval and Tyler Rogers. Both Arizona and San Francisco could, if nothing else, give the Dodgers a tussle considering they are division rivals, and in Arizona’s case, they ran over the Dodgers two years ago in the NLDS. But both teams have an uphill climb, as does Cincinnati. If the Reds are to make a run, they will need more from Elly De La Cruz, who has been dropped to seventh in the batting order.