Championship Sunday Preview: New Old Faces

It isn’t quite the “wide open year” that everyone predicted now, is it? Considering all four finalists have won a Super Bowl in the past dozen years, and one of them is tied for the most ever, it doesn’t quite feel as “underdog-esque” as people may seem to think.

Nevertheless, the top seeds have arrived at this stage with completely different narratives, and the teams coming to town hail from the two regions that have produced far and away the most major professional sports titles this century.

Let’s dive into some fun stats and, ultimately, predictions for this weekend’s slate:

30 years of success in this round

Every one of the four remaining teams has dominated in this round over the last three decades. The Rams have won four straight dating to their 1999 title, Seattle is 3-0 as an NFC team, Denver is 4-1, and the Patriots went 9-4 during the Brady era. Something has to give.

Plenty of symmetry to go around

You know I love some good symmetry! Where should we start? We can begin with 2013, when No. 2 New England visited No. 1 Denver on the AFC side while No. 1 Seattle hosted a division rival on the NFC side of things.

Of course, 2015 is an easy one. New England at Denver with the same seeding setup, with New England a road favorite and the winner earning a trip to play a Super Bowl in Santa Clara ending in “0.” That Denver team also used two starting quarterbacks, with Peyton Manning only retuning to action in Week 17 of that season.

Or how about Sam Darnold facing the Rams for the second year in a row in the playoffs while Jarrett Stidham faces his original team? Okay, that isn’t exactly “symmetry,” but another fun little storyline the media can run with.

There’s also that whole “new Pope, Seattle wins” thing that worked well for the Hawks in 2005 and 2013. Seattle is hosting its fourth NFC championship game (it has yet to play one on the road in the NFC), and three of those times (2005, 2013, 2025) the Broncos have hosted one the same day in the earlier window.

Imperfection

The Patriots are actually 0-4 all-time in Denver in the postseason, most recently losing the 2013 and 2015 AFC title games. More surprisingly, the Seahawks are 0-2 at home against the Rams in the postseason, falling in 2004 (the Rams’ last-ever playoff win as the St. Louis Rams) and 2020 in front of no fans. New England at least has one win against Denver in the playoffs, crushing the Tebow Mania Broncos 45-10 in 2011.

One QB has all the playoff wins

Matthew Stafford (seven) enters Sunday with more playoff wins combined than the three other quarterbacks. Even if Bo Nix were healthy, Nix’s one combined with Darnold’s one and Maye’s two would be just over half as many as the 17th year vet.

Predictions

AFC

(2) New England at (1) Denver

The coaches could make all the difference. In the early window, Sean Payton has his hands full trying to prepare Stidham, but something tells me Denver is no pushover as a home underdog. They didn’t go 14-3 by accident, and it’s possible rust was a factor in their shootout win over Buffalo last week. It may feel like a stunner, but I’m going with more Mile High magic for the home team against a Patriots club that has always struggled in the altitude. Pick: Broncos 23, Patriots 21.

NFC

(5) Los Angeles Rams at (1) Seattle

The Rams just keep finding a way, and it feels like they haven’t even played their best football yet. They were supposed to win ugly against Carolina; instead, they won a shootout. They were supposed to win a shootout against Chicago; instead, they won ugly.

Seattle looks fantastic, but could they have peaked last week while destroying San Francisco? These two teams split and the games were decided by a total of three points, but the second meeting featured a 16-point blown lead by the Rams due to special teams in a game in which Davonte Adams didn’t play.

Despite the 12s and a 41-6 win last week, my gut tells me Sam Darnold may feel the heat as he did in taking nine sacks against the Rams in last year’s postseason. Los Angeles will muster enough offense and come up with one or two key plays on defense to propel the team to its sixth-ever Super Bowl. Pick: Rams 27, Seahawks 24 (OT).