Division Series Preview: Division Rivals Should Provide Plenty of Drama

Until 2012, MLB did not allow division rivals to meet until the LCS. But it seems like every year it happens in this round, and has only happen once (!) in the LCS since then, with the Astros and Rangers facing off last season.

We have three of the four series truly putting the “division” in Division Series, with plenty of juicy storylines.

A look now at the four series:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

(6) Detroit vs. (2) Cleveland

The Guardians took seven of the 13 matchups in the regular season, but the Tigers come in on fire right now and just ended the Astros’ run of seven straight ALCS appearances. The Guardians have major starting pitching concerns, even though the Tigers don’t even seem to have an actual rotation behind Tarik Skubal. The bullpens are the strength of both teams, as Cleveland’s pen was more than a half-run better than the next closest team while Detroit’s bullpen ERA was fifth. Perhaps surprisingly, the Guardians finished better statistically in almost every major offensive category than Detroit. But something feels different about this Tigers team, as they are 33-13 in their last 46 games entering this series. It won’t be easy, but I’m going a little sentimental here and taking AJ Hinch’s bunch to keep their improbable run going. Pick: Tigers in 4.

(5) Kansas City vs. (1) New York Yankees

The Yankees took five of the seven regular-season meetings, with one of those wins coming in the bottom of the ninth against erstwhile closer Clay Holmes. Kansas City’s pitching has been tough as nails, but is it really enough to overcome some big-time offensive struggles? The return of Vinnie Pasquantino certainly helps, but the path feels clear for a Yankees team whose path to the World Series finally will not feature the Astros. New York sometimes feels like a two-man show with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, and this certainly won’t be a blowout series by any means, but I’m skeptical Kansas City can take a best-of-five with an offense that has been the worst in baseball since the start of September (.203 team average, 74 runs, 15 home runs) and mustered just three runs in two games against Baltimore. Pick: Yankees in 5.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

(4) San Diego vs. (1) Los Angeles Dodgers

This is as good as it gets. The Padres won the season series, 8-5, but L.A. took two of three when it needed to wrap up the division in the final week of the regular season. Both teams now have pitching concerns with the Padres’ likely loss of their best pitcher the last two months, Joe Musgrove, but certainly the Dodgers will have no sympathy considering they have lost Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, and River Ryan (among others) this season. Shohei Ohtani’s first postseason may not quite match his historic regular season, but you know he has at least one massive moment in him. The last three years, the NL West winner has lost to a wild card division rival in this round (the Dodgers were on the right side in 2021, but the wrong side the past two years). San Diego’s bullpen gets more attention, but the Dodgers bullpen has four dominant relievers that don’t seem to get talked about enough in Alex Vesia, Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, and Michael Kopech, and that’s not even including flame-throwing Brusdar Graterol. L.A. has less to worry about if its starters struggle, and as Dave Roberts pointed out, his team has shown more of an edge this season than in years past. Also, it’s quite fair to worry about the effectiveness of Robert Suarez as the Padres’ closer, as he has not looked right over the past month and it could well be from overuse by Mike Shildt. That could also be a determining factor in this series. In a heavyweight fight, expect the Dodgers to land the last punch. Pick: Dodgers in 5.

(6) New York Mets vs. (2) Philadelphia

So the Phillies won the season series, 7-6, so what? The way the Mets are rolling right now, how can you count them out? Scoring four in the ninth off one of baseball’s best closers is proof that this team simply does not want to go home. The Phillies have played very average baseball since the All-Star break and open the postseason as one of the favorites for the first time since 2011. They no longer have the underdog that seemed to propel them through the last two postseasons (ending last year when they finally became the favorite against Arizona). If seeing is believing, count me in on the Mets bandwagon. Pick: Mets in 4.