The picks are in: Breaking down Week 1

Football is back, and what a way to get
it started with the Saints and the Packers coming down to the very
last play of an absolute barnburner Thursday night. Picking Week 1 is
already tough, but picking Week 1 in a lockout year is an utter
crapshoot. All eyes will be on the Steelers-Ravens rivalry renewal,
Chad Ochocinco’s Monday night Patriots debut, and New York and
Washington on what will be the 10^th anniversary of the
devastating 9/11 attacks. Without further ado, here is a breakdown of
the first Sunday slate of 2011.

Atlanta (-2.5) at Chicago

Analysis: These two teams seemed
destined to clash in last year’s NFC Championship Game, but the
Falcons were derailed by the eventual-champion Packers after a 13-3
campaign. Matt Ryan now has a new weapon to complement Roddy White in
Julio Jones, and Chicago’s Jay Cutler will be under the microscope
after his early exit in last year’s title game. Both teams feature
top kick returners in Atlanta’s Eric Weems and Chicago’s Devin
Hester, meaning that the new kickoff rule will rob fans of seeing
something special in all likelihood. Atlanta’s defense needs to prove
it can carry the day, while Chicago’s needs to force turnovers to
have a chance. Atlanta should be able to take care of the football
enough to pull this one out. The pick: Falcons.

Buffalo at Kansas
City (-6)

Analysis: Matt
Cassel will play despite a rib injury, but the Chiefs barely got by
the 0-6 Bills in OT last year with a healthy Cassel at the helm. The
Bills are perennial bottom-feeders yet always seem to play best in
these types of spots, facing teams not used to being expected to win.
Kansas City should have enough to get by, but Buffalo will likely
keep it close throughout. The pick: Bills.

Cincinnati at
Cleveland (-6.5)

Analysis: The
Bengals will once again be a laughingstock, great news for the Browns
who usually hold that distinction. But many feel Colt McCoy can make
this a competitive team in this his sophomore season, and he’s got a
shot to put them where they haven’t often been: over .500. It doesn’t
figure to be easy because Cleveland isn’t used to being favored by
this many points, let alone at all, but it is hard to imagine the
Bengals being competitive in many games early on in the season with a
rookie quarterback and a roster pretty devoid of talent. The
pick: Browns.

Detroit at Tampa
Bay (-1)

Analysis: Perhaps
the proudest moment of last season for the Lions came on this very
field when they upended the playoff-contending Bucs in overtime to
notch their first road win since 2007. It was the second of four
consecutive season-ending wins for Detroit, part of the reason they
are a chic playoff pick this year. Opposing them will be the
overachieving Bucs, who shocked everyone by leaping from 3-13 to 10-6
a year ago with young Josh Freeman at the helm. Tampa Bay likely
won’t forget that loss as it kept them from postseason play (and in
turn allowed Green Bay to get in and ultimately win it all) and
should be motivated to make amends against the much-improved Lions,
who may have a tough time dealing with realistic expectations for the
first time in a very long time. The pick: Buccaneers.

Indianapolis at
Houston (-9)

Analysis: No
one thought this day would come – the day that the Colts would
start a season with someone other than Peyton Manning under center.
But Kerry Collins is the guy for the foreseeable future with No. 18
sidelined with neck problems, ending his Iron Man streak at 227
games. Houston had everyone singing their praises in this very spot
last year when Arian Foster ran roughshod over the Colts in the
opener for 231 yards and a 34-24 win, but he may also be out of
action on Sunday. But the big blow is Manning, and with him out it
means this may finally be the year the Texans rise to prominence in
the AFC South. This is a huge statement game for them to take control
with Manning not playing, and they should rise to the occasion. The
pick: Texans.

New York Giants
(-3) at Washington

Analysis: The
Redskins are going with – gasp – Rex Grossman to start the year
at quarterback, but Eli Manning hasn’t exactly won people over with
his recent play. The Giants finished 2010 with a win at FedEx field
to finish at 10-6 but still missed the playoffs, while Washington
went 6-10 and has reached the playoffs just twice since 1999. Many
aren’t sold on the Giants and feel that perhaps the Redskins will be
better off without the headaches of Donovan McNabb and more
prominently, Albert Haynesworth. This could be one of the surprises
of Week 1. The pick: Redskins.

Philadelphia (-4)
at St. Louis

Analysis: The
Eagles “dream team” gets a real test when they travel to upstart
St. Louis. Michael Vick could be tested by Steve Spagnuolo’s stingy
defense, but the Eagles are looking to prove to everyone they are the
real deal, and DeSean Jackson could find easy pickings against a
suspect Rams secondary. It seems like ages ago that these two teams
met on this very field in the NFC Championship Game (it was 2001,
Vick’s rookie year for Atlanta), but both have high expectations ten
years later. This should be an entertaining game, but Philadelphia
might have too much for the Rams, who still figure to be the
favorites in the NFC West. The pick: Eagles.

Pittsburgh at
Baltimore (-1)

Analysis: The
Ravens are still smarting from blowing a 21-7 lead in Pittsburgh in
last year’s divisional playoffs, but they get an instant shot at
redemption. Troy Polamalu’s unblocked sack and strip of Joe Flacco
sealed the meeting in Baltimore last year, won by Pittsburgh 13-10,
one of many ridiculous breaks Pittsburgh got in winning the AFC North
(see: Johnson, Steve). But the Ravens are in somewhat of a transition
faze, and while many Super Bowl losing teams have suffered key
injuries the following year, Pittsburgh doesn’t have any yet and a
healthy Steelers squad may be a tad bit too much for the Ravens this
early in the season. The pick: Steelers.

Tennessee at
Jacksonville (-2)

Analysis: Jack
Del Rio once again pulled a sneaky and stunning move right before the
season in cutting David Garrard, just as he did in 2007 with Byron
Leftwich. Things worked out that year as Jacksonville went 11-5 and
made the playoffs, but with Luke McCown stepping in this time, things
won’t be nearly as rosy. Del Rio should be on his way out soon (if
the Jags organization doesn’t relocate first) as a massive rebuilding
project is underway. Tennessee is also retooling things, but the
addition of Matt Hasselbeck gives them a legitimate veteran bridge to
their young quarterback in Jake Locker, and the Titans could be a
little more competitive than people think. Chris Johnson is also back
in business, bad news for any opposing run defense, especially the
Jaguars’. The pick: Titans.

Carolina at
Arizona (-6.5)

Analysis: The
Cam Newton era begins on the road while the Kevin Kolb era begins in
the desert. Arizona should be able to make a run at the tepid NFC
West, while Carolina is up against it in the rugged NFC South. There
will be the inevitable growing pains with Newton, but it shouldn’t be
hard to improve on last year’s win total as the Panthers went a
league-worst 2-14. One of those wins was against the Cardinals, as
the Panthers have beaten Arizona the last two years after getting
bludgeoned by them in the 2008 divisional playoffs. Still, the first
half of the season could be somewhat brutal as Newton adjusts to life
at the pro level, so Arizona should pull away in the second half. The
pick: Cardinals.

Minnesota at San
Diego (-9)

Analysis: The
last time San Diego opened up at home against the NFC team, Jake
Delhomme connected with Donte Rosario with no time left to send the
Chargers to a 26-24 loss. This time around, the Chargers should fare
better as expectations, as usual, are high in San Diego while the
Vikings are simply looking to rebound from a dreadful 6-10 season a
year ago. When these teams last played in 2007, Adrian Peterson set
an NFL single-game record with 296 rushing yards to outshine Antonio
Cromartie’s NFL-record 109-yard missed field goal return. Fireworks
don’t figure to be as prominent in this meeting, and while the
Chargers are clearly the better team, Minnesota cleaned things up a
bit in the offseason and could keep this one close throughout.
Another lesson I have learned is that picking San Diego at any point
early in the season is always dangerous, as this club never seems to
wake up until at least October. The pick: Vikings.

Seattle at San
Francisco (-5)

Analysis: The
Seahawks are coming off the worst division-winning season in NFL
history, claiming the NFC West in 2010 with an unheralded 7-9 mark.
The 49ers were just one game back at 6-10 but were out of the running
early when they started 0-5, and haven’t added much talent to the
roster despite hiring Jim Harbaugh as their coach. Tarvaris Jackson
faces Alex Smith after a minimal offseason, so the gag reel could be
quite a spectacle in this one. Marshawn Lynch and Frank Gore bear
watching however, especially as everyone remembers Lynch’s
remarkable, game-clinching 67-yard run in the Seahawks’ playoff upset
of the Saints in January. The 49ers entered 2010 with high
expectations only to be doused by Seattle in the opener, 31-6, so
they should have a little added motivation, but this one should be
close throughout – for better or worse. The pick: Seahawks.

Dallas at New York
Jets (-5.5)

Analysis: As in
DC, it will be an emotional atmosphere at the New Meadowlands Sunday
night when the Jets begin their quest for an elusive AFC title. In
their way in this opening act are the Cowboys, a year removed from a
massive underachieving 6-10 season. However, they went 5-3 down the
stretch under now-full-time head coach Jason Garrett, and won’t let
the Jets off the hook easily. Tony Romo is healthy and looking to
prove himself, just as Mark Sanchez is looking to prove he can
finally take the next step. This battle of the Ryans (Rob is the new
defensive coordinator for Dallas) should be entertaining, as last
year’s brother showdown resulted in a nearly-five-quarter thriller
between the Browns and Jets. The Jets should have just enough to get
by and cover the points. The pick: Jets.

New England (-7)
at Miami

Analysis: When the
Patriots traveled to Miami for a Monday night game last year, the
Dolphins were not only thoroughly embarrassed, they were historically
bad. As in allowing a touchdown in virtually every way possible to
the Patriots in what turned out to be Randy Moss’ final game with New
England. The Patriots, 14-2 a year ago, are even more loaded with
Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth joining a restocked defensive
line, while the Dolphins continue to be a middling force in the AFC
East with a mediocre Chad Henne at the helm. A new running back corps
that doesn’t impress anyone is of little help to the inconsistent
Henne, and the defense is not up to par. While the Patriots may not
score in four different ways again, they figure to put the Dolphins
away handily by halftime. The pick: Patriots.

Oakland at Denver
(-3)

Analysis: The
Broncos are relatively made over with John Fox at the helm and Von
Miller adding a presence on defense in addition to the now-healthy
Elvis Dumervil. Fox resurrected an even more helpless situation in
Carolina, taking the Panthers to the Super Bowl just two years
removed from a 1-15 campaign. While the Broncos may not follow the
same plight, they figure to be much more competitive as Kyle Orton is
back in charge (remember how he led the league in passing the first
month of 2010?) Not to mention the Broncos lost both meetings last
year by a combined 98-37, including 59-14 at home. In this heated
rivalry, that should not come close to happening again. The pick:
Broncos.

Upset of the
Week: REDSKINS over GIANTS. It feels like a bit of a reach given the
constant downtrodden state of the Redskins, but with the emotion of
9/11 and a less toxic atmosphere in the locker room, Mike Shanahan’s
squad could have something in store for an enigmatic Giants team that
has beaten them six straight times.