AL Wild Card Game: A’s Look to Rebound

Perhaps this is the best spot for the Oakland Athletics to be in: the “other guys” in a postseason event that’s all about the Kansas City Royals’ first appearance in the dance since 1985. Oakland suffered a massive near-collapse over the final two months, finishing the season in a 16-30 funk that was barely enough to get them to this point. Tonight, their big prized acquisition at the trade deadline, Jon Lester, faces a familiar foe from his American League East days in “Big Game” James Shields. So, who has the edge here?

Starting Pitching
Lester was 16-11 with a 2.46 ERA on the season and is 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA donning an A’s uniform, as a lack of run support has hampered him all year. Shields, who has thrown the most innings since 2007, has cranked it up in the second half, posting a 2.62 ERA over 14 starts. Both pitchers have thrown in the playoffs before, but Lester’s postseason resume is much more impressive, including a 2.11 ERA in 13 starts and two World Series rings. The tipping point here may be Lester’s dominance over Kansas City in his career. He is 9-3 lifetime against them with a 1.84 ERA, including a no-hitter back in 2008. Edge: Athletics

Bullpen
This one is rather lopsided. As good as Sean Doolittle has been at the back end for Oakland (89 Ks, 8 BB in 62.2 IP), KC may boast the best relief corps in all of baseball. Wade Davis (9-2, 1.00 ERA) and Greg Holland (46 saves, 1.44 ERA) are almost unhittable. Another major edge for the Royals lies in the fact that they are playing at home. Should the game be tied in the 9th, A’s manager Bob Melvin would have to decide whether to use Doolittle (possibly for multiple innings) or keep him in reserve for a possible save situation in extra innings. Expect to see Davis and Holland in the 8th and 9th, respectively, unless Shields is cruising. Edge: Royals.

Offense
Oakland gave up perhaps its most formidable bat in Yoenis Cespedes to get Lester, but there are still some home runs to go around – Josh Donaldson hit 29, while Brandon Moss clubbed 25. The Royals are dead last in baseball in long balls with a measly 95 (Oakland’s 146 are 13th) and they rely much more on speed. It could be a little tougher for the Royals to run because Lester is a lefty, as the A’s hope to negate the Royals’ MLB-leading 153 stolen bases. Oakland has only swiped 83 bags, but both teams have an 81 percent success rate. And, beware the K – and that is a memo to the pitchers, not the hitters. The Royals and A’s are first and second, respectively, in fewest total strikeouts, with KC fanning a minuscule 985 times on the season. Edge: Athletics.

Bench
This is another area of concern for Kansas City, as it is tied for last in baseball with just nine pinch-hits on the year. Oakland is in the middle of the pack with 32, but has some pesky hitters in reserve with guys like Nick Punto, Geovany Soto, and of course, Jonny Gomes, who came through time and again last season for the world champion Red Sox. Edge: Athletics.

Intangibles
Both teams are well managed, with the Royals’ Ned Yost being a candidate for AL Manager of the Year and Bob Melvin having won the award twice, once in both leagues. Postseason experience heavily favors the A’s, but there is a great debate on whether that is really important anymore. Despite their partial free fall, the Athletics may be feeling less pressure now for simply surviving their dreadful stretch. The A’s were 40-41 on the road this year, but playing at home isn’t necessarily a big edge for the Royals either, as they went just 42-39 at Kauffman Stadium. Controlling their emotions could be a challenge for the Royals in front of a rabid crowd that hasn’t experienced October baseball (well, technically it’s still September) in nearly three decades. Edge: Athletics.

Prediction
Both pitchers have a knack for being at their best when the spotlight shines brightest, but Lester and the A’s may be ready to finally break through after a prolonged lull and two straight ALDS defeats at the hands of the Detroit Tigers. A Wild Card win doesn’t exactly exorcise those demons, but would go a long way towards restoring their confidence. Expect a tight game throughout, but Oakland will find the clutch hit that has eluded it for the past two months. Athletics 4, Royals 3.