Why the St. Louis Cardinals Might Win the World Series

The data to date may not support it.
There is nothing to fear in a second-place club that is last in the
National League in home runs. But would anyone be shocked if the St.
Louis Cardinals end up playing deep into October? I wouldn’t.

Growing up in Baltimore as an Orioles
fan, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees automatically draw my
ire under any circumstances, and I don’t hesitate to say that my
fellow Bird lovers feel the same. But the Cardinals aren’t far
behind, and I’m always surprised that they are so benign to most
folks outside of, say, Chicago, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and
Pittsburgh. Winning seems to breed haters, and St. Louis has won four
pennants in the last decade.

So what makes this year’s team so
special? Maybe it’s nothing. Maybe it’s everything. Maybe it’s
somewhere in between. But the Cardinals are never far from the
action. Even when it seems that you’re out of the woods, well… Just
recall the 2011 club, which sat 10.5 games out of the wild card
chase before leapfrogging
everybody to sneak into the playoffs. A month later, they were
celebrating the franchise’s 11^th
World Series championship.

If
the “been there, done that” philosophy isn’t enough to strike
fear, look no further than their starting pitching. Again, even some
of the numbers look deceiving: 3.57 ERA (sixth in NL), 609 strikeouts
(15^th
in MLB), and 737.2 innings pitched (16^th
in MLB). But wait, there’s this one: 18 shutouts, which is not only
tops in the majors, but, in reaching that number in just 104 games,
was the most in such a short span since the 1992 Atlanta Braves. And
that team had a pretty decent rotation.

Matt Carpenter has seen 4.35 pitches per at-bat this
season, fifth-best in baseball. (Photo: Harry How/Getty Images)

Adam
Wainwright is the second-best pitcher in baseball. John Lackey owns
two World Series rings of his own. Justin Masterson is a former staff
ace in Cleveland. And all Lance Lynn does is win. So there are four
stellar options right there, but the club could still get plenty of
help from one of the game’s premier young pitchers in Michael Wacha
when he returns from a shoulder injury in September.

The
offense has convinced absolutely no one that it is capable of
carrying the team in October should it be counted on to pick up any
extra slack. The 81 home runs they’ve hit through 123 games means
“instant offense” is often unattainable. Seven of those dingers
are gone, with Allen Craig shipped to Boston with Joe Kelly in the
Lackey trade. The team is hitting .252 (13^th
in MLB) with a sub par .691 OPS (22^nd).
Matt Holliday is nicked up with knee troubles. Which is still better
than Yadier Molina, who is in far worse shape with a torn thumb
ligament that well shelve him well into September.

And
then this: the Cards have scored 461 runs and allowed 469. Yet,
still, they are nine games over .500 at 66-57. Their closer, young
Trevor Rosenthal, is 1-6 with four blown saves and an astonishingly
bad 5.3 BB/9 IP ratio. So I ask the naysayers this: what happens when
this team starts to hit its stride? It is evident they have yet to do
so, and I would argue equally evident that they will in the future.

The
glass-half-empty approach tells us that a team that has been
outscored by eight runs and is still nine games over .500 is getting
by on luck, and luck doesn’t win in the playoffs. If your glass is
half-full, you realize that this is a team that simply understands
how to win, and has done so through four-and-a-half underachieving
month. At some point, things will get better (you mean 66-57 is
bad?).

St.
Louis doesn’t have an abundance of gaudy stats to validate what’s
been a pretty solid season to date, but it helps to be 27-19 against
your division foes, three of whom are in playoff contention. They’re
20-19 in one-run games. They’re 8-12 in interleague play (bad news
for them in the World Series, perhaps?). And they’re 3-4 in extra
innings. And still, consistency has been the name of the game for
them – with Milwaukee’s dusting of the Dodgers this weekend, the
Cardinals are now the only team in baseball that has not been swept
in a three-game series in 2014.

With
Matt Carpenter heating up, the offense could start to take off. The
pitching, even with some bullpen questions, has been and will be a
constant. And the Cards are tough at home (36-26). So why do the
Dodgers, Nationals, and even the Brewers seem to be getting more love
as National League favorites? I’m fine with that, and apparently, so
are the Cardinals. But that doesn’t make them any more likeable.

It
could be that this season feels like a letdown after 97-65 in 2013.
It could be the lack of flash, even with the substance to supplement
it. Or it could be that the “nicest fans in baseball” simply
don’t want to toot their own horn until it’s absolutely necessary to.

You
have heard of that reference, the nicest fans in baseball, haven’t
you? Their MO: we cheer when the other team makes a nice play. We
don’t boo. Sure, that seems reasonable. But when you compare them to
their competition, i.e. Red Sox, Yankees, and Phillies fans, how hard
is it to look saintly? Are they supposed to get credit for doing
something that should be expected of fanbases? I don’t think that on
a fan-by-fan basis, they are any more “knowledgeable” about the
game than Cleveland Indians or Kansas City Royals fans. And yet, you
must love and respect the sea of red that invades Busch Stadium on a
nightly basis, or you’re just plain out of line.

But,
come October, would anyone be surprised if those “loveable”
Cardinals fans are celebrating a pennant or a world championship? I
wouldn’t.