2013-14 Postseason: Bring your QB

There’s that old adage about bringing your defense to the postseason party. Sure, no one will debate that. Just look at the last three Super Bowl champions – Green Bay, New York and Baltimore all had top-notch defenses that helped spark their title runs. But guess what else they had? Elite quarterbacks who played at above-elite levels in the NFL’s second season. And what was that about playoff experience? Sure, it’s nice to have that, too, but it isn’t all its cracked up to be. Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning had never won a playoff game before they went on their first championship runs (Manning has since won another of course). Rodgers, Manning, Drew Brees and even Tom Brady in his first Super Bowl all beat quarterbacks with more rings than them. Perhaps that will be of some comfort to Nick Foles and Cam Newton, who have never started a postseason game. Let’s take a quick look now at the 12 playoff teams and the keys to a potential Lombardi Trophy.

American Football Conference

1. Denver Broncos (13-3)
Well, the Broncos aren’t any good and they certainly don’t have a quarterback, so… Wait a minute, what’s that? You mean Peyton Manning threw for an NFL-record 5,467 yards and 55 touchdowns this season? Oh, my mistake. The only thing burdening Manning now is his 9-11 playoff record and perhaps Denver’s 27th-ranked pass defense. But being at home throughout the playoffs makes the Broncos a dangerous bunch. They still need to get past the Patriots and Tom Brady, which could be tough. If somehow New England is eliminated in its first playoff game, Denver’s path to the Super Bowl should be a rather easy one.
2. New England Patriots (12-4)
Been there, done that. The Patriots are title-less since 2004, but they are no less dangerous than in the past. Even with all the injuries, they have Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and a defense that always comes up with the big play. Oh, and they seem to have Peyton Manning’s number. They are more than capable of going into Mile High and beating the Broncos, but their knack for getting behind in games has to be something of a concern, especially against a team like Cincinnati or Indianapolis that can continue to put points on the board throughout the game and rush the passer with the lead.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
It’s time for Andy Dalton to win in the playoffs. He’s 0-2 in two games against Houston and now gets a home date with a 9-7 Chargers team that got to the dance on a wing and a prayer. The Bengals are 8-0 at home and explosive on offense, even if their defense has been decimated by injuries. As tempting as it is for Bengals fans to look ahead to a possible date with New England, first things first. The franchise has not won a playoff game since the 1990 wild card round against the Houston Oilers. To say that Dalton will be leaning heavily on A.J. Green (98 rec., 1,426 yds., 11 TDs) is the understatement of the century.
4. Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Who are these Colts exactly? Since Reggie Wayne’s unfortunate ACL injury, the offense hasn’t been quite the same, but the Colts appear capable of beating anybody, as evidenced by wins over Denver, Seattle, San Francisco and Kansas City. Then again, they’ve had head-scratching losses to St. Louis, San Diego and Miami. Andrew Luck lost his playoff debut last year at Baltimore, but the Colts are about more than just the sophomore signal-caller. Robert Mathis led the NFL with 19.5 sacks (Dwight who?) and Donald Brown is making the Trent Richardson trade look even more puzzling, but few are complaining as Brown is averaging 5.3 yards a carry, good for third in the NFL and second among RBs. Do you kind of get the feeling that the Colts are the kind of team that could either go out with a quick thud or streak all the way to MetLife Stadium in February?
5. Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
Speaking of Bengal-like playoff burdens, Kansas City has gone two decades without a playoff win. Enter Andy Reid, who turned the franchise around in the blink of an eye. The Chiefs went from the league’s worst team at 2-14 to one of the most efficient squads, a disciplined and effective group that rarely beats itself. But Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles will need to step up big to protect a defense that has shown plenty of leaks during a 2-5 finish that followed a 9-0 start. Even if the Chiefs can get by Indy, they don’t figure to have enough potency to surpass Denver or New England. No matter what happens, this season has been a smashing success and should net Reid Coach of the Year honors.
6. San Diego Chargers (9-7)
By the slimmest of margins, the Chargers are here. A missed field goal that should have been followed by a do-over gave the Bolts new life and their first playoff berth since 2009, and now Philip Rivers (3-4 lifetime in the postseason) will lead San Diego in to face a Bengals team that beat the Chargers 17-10 a little over a month ago. But the Chargers sort of have the same syndrome the Colts do, the one where they can beat the good teams (Colts, Broncos, Chiefs twice) yet lose to the inferior ones (Redskins, Raiders, Texans). A four-game winning streak gives them momentum and confidence, and they are essentially playing with house money, so don’t count out an improbable run. But such a feat is just that – improbable.

National Football Conference
1. Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
Okay, so you want to be a Super Bowl team if you’re an NFC contender? Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to go up to CenturyLink Field and knock off the Seahawks. Seattle is lethal at home, having lost just once there in two years. Russell Wilson hasn’t had to be perfect because of the Hawks’ “Legion of Boom” defense, which ranked first in total yards allowed (273.6), pass yards (172), points per game (14.4) and interceptions (28) while also forcing 20 fumbles. It’s hard to imagine the defense letting down its guard at any point, even against a top-notch offense like Green Bay or Philadelphia. But here in this second season, Wilson may still have to step it up to get Seattle to the big game. There’s no reason to think he can’t, given that he’s already won a playoff game and put up stellar numbers in his sophomore season of 2013 (3,357 yds., 26 TDs, 9 INTs, 101.2 rating). The team to knock off Seattle may be Green Bay or San Francisco if given the opportunity.
2. Carolina Panthers (12-4)
Like with Seattle, Carolina hasn’t had to rely solely on its QB to get to this point, but Cam Newton will also need to elevate his game if the Cats are to make their second-even Super Bowl appearance. Linebacker Luke Kuechly is a legitimate MVP candidate in just his second season, anchoring a defense that ranked second against the run and leading the league with an outrageous 156 tackles (including 24 in Week 16 against New Orleans). Newton (88.8 rating, 24 TDs, 13 INTs) is a playoff newbie and is dangerous with both his arms and legs, but the weather could force him to be more of a pocket passer, which means Carolina would benefit more from playing Philadelphia or Green Bay in its first game rather than San Francisco, against whom it scored just 10 points in the teams’ first meeting.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
Speaking of fresh-faced playoff QBs, Nick Foles is one, but he is not your Average Joe playoff quarterback. Not with a record 27:2 TD:INT ratio he’s not. Foles and the Eagles’ offense at times can be unstoppable and if the Philly defense has any kind of success this postseason, the Eagles are a dark-horse Super Bowl candidate. Still, the playoffs are a different animal and Foles has much to prove yet. If Philadelphia gets past New Orleans, a date with Carolina looms, and that would be the Eagles’ biggest challenge yet. But there is no denying what Foles is capable of, and oh yeah, did we mention that they also have the league’s leading rusher in LeSean McCoy? Shady’s record-setting year not only included 1,607 yards on the ground but a franchise-best 2,146 yards from scrimmage. The key for the Eagles may just be the turnover battle. If they win in that department, they very well could go all the way. If they lose it, they could be one and done.
4. Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)
Wow, the NFC is just full of “dark-horse contenders,” isn’t it? Here are the 8-7-1 Packers, who clearly are not your average 8-7-1 team. Aaron Rodgers came back in the nick of time to deliver Green Bay its third straight NFC North title, and with Randall Cobb also back in the fold, it’s pretty much all about the offense, with star rookie running back Eddie Lacy as well, to carry the Pack. San Francisco is a tough draw, but Green Bay took the Niners right to the wire in Week 1, and the winner of this matchup becomes a very dangerous foe. The defense is a major concern, as the Packers ranked 25th in total defense and allowed 26.8 points per game (including 34 to San Francisco in the first meeting), so the offense can’t let up.
5. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
Talk about a dangerous No. 5 seed. The defending NFC champs have won six straight and look like they’ve picked up right where they left off last postseason. Colin Kaepernick needs to create some big plays because the 49ers ranked 30th in passing offense and 24th in total offense, putting that much more pressure on Frank Gore and the run game and the vaunted San Francisco defense. There is no question the 49ers have what it takes to win three straight on the road to get back to the Super Bowl, but first can they put up enough points at Lambeau Field to outduel Aaron Rodgers and the Packers?
6. New Orleans Saints (11-5)
Another lethal low-seeded team, the Saints are also capable of making a serious run because of their potent offense and a much-improved defense that ranked fourth overall (they did only create 19 turnovers, however), but their road woes – they went 3-5 outside the Superdome – are certainly cause for concern. They start out in Philadelphia against an equally potent offense, then would have to go back to Seattle, where they were soundly thumped 34-7 in early December. Drew Brees is 4-4 lifetime in the postseason and is no doubt an elite-level QB, but having the support of a running game will also be key. The Saints were 25th in rushing offense, with Pierre Thomas leading the way with just 549 yards on the ground. Jimmy Graham (86 rec., 1,215 yds., 16 TDs) makes everything go in the passing game, but if he is controlled, New Orleans’ offense can go silent.

Ultimate (but early) postseason prediction: Patriots over Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII