MLB Best Bets for September 4, 2024

And that’s a perfect first day! Okay, I nailed my first-ever MLB parlay bet-of-the-day yesterday, and could have been a little bolder with the Pirates and taken them money line.

Let’s take a stab at another one here and see if I can turn this into an actual “winning streak” now (odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook):

Phillies at Blue Jays, no runs first inning (NRFI) (-130)

These are always tough to bet on because you find yourself instantly sweating out your bet as soon as the first pitch of the game is thrown. But you have a very hot pitcher in Bowden Francis and two teams coming off a slugfest last night, so the angle here is that with a day game after a night game slugfest could result in the offenses being sluggish. Keeping Kyle Schwarber, who had three home runs last night, in check could go a long way towards this leg hitting.

Bowden Francis to record at least 4 strikeouts (-425)

This is playing it safe, but Francis, for all his dominance lately, isn’t necessarily that big of a strikeout pitcher (8.58 K/9 IP). Still, we’re going with the due-for-a-letdown theory as much as anything with the two offenses today. The Phillies are middle-of-the-pack in terms of team strikeouts.

Cubs to beat the Pirates (-205)

This is a pretty sizable money line, but you’d have to think after two straight losses to the Pirates — which almost felt due after the tear the Cubs have been on — the buck stops here with Imanaga. Chicago still has faint playoff hopes and absolutely cannot let Pittsburgh return the favor from last week’s three-game road sweep by the Cubbies. Despite the lower-than-ideal value, you’d have to trust Imanaga in a big “stopper” game for him.