MLB Division Series Picks: Will the Big Dogs Flex?

And then there were eight.

Here we go with the Division Series, and this year is somewhat unique in that the top seeds all either feel like — or actually are, according to the oddsmakers — underdogs. Milwaukee, Toronto, and Seattle all figure to have their hands full despite owning homefield advantage, and even the Phillies are slight underdogs to the mighty Dodgers.

I went 3-1 in the wild card round, and without further ado, here are my next four:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

(1) Blue Jays vs. (4) Yankees

I called Cam Schlittler a “budding ace” in my wild card preview, and that was an understatement. He’ll only pitch once in this series, but Bo Bichette won’t play at all, which is a big blow to Toronto’s hopes. The Yankees exorcised one demon in Boston and had the fortune of facing the Red Sox without Roman Anthony and Lucas Giolito (shades of the Padres losing Game 4 starter Joe Musgrove just before their series last year), and now they’ll get the face the Jays sans Bichette (heck, they even may avoid Bryan Woo, who nearly no-hit them, should they advance to the ALCS and face Seattle). This feels like unfinished business for the Yankees, and coupled with the fact that they are 36-15 in their last 51 games and the Blue Jays needed a four-game win streak after a 1-7 stretch nearly cost them the division, this feels like one of the easier predictions (forget the 8-5 regular-season record for Toronto against New York, since that was all with Bichette). I’m torn between four or five games, but I’m making one confident pick here — the Blue Jays bullpen will be responsible for one of their (heartbreaking) losses. Pick: Yankees in 5.

(2) Mariners vs. (6) Tigers

Tarik Skubal will pitch twice if this series goes five games, but the M’s had their way with Skubal right before the All-Star break. Seattle could come in quite stiff having been swept by the Dodgers and then sitting for nearly a week, but it’s hard for me to trust a Tigers team that simply cannot hit with runners in scoring position save for one inning in Cleveland. I don’t see the Mariners as a “team of destiny,” but I do think the depth of their starting rotation and home run power will give them an edge. For good measure, they had a significant speed advantage as they finished tied for third in baseball in stolen bases, while the Tigers were dead-last. Pick: Mariners in 4.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

(1) Brewers vs. (4) Cubs

The Cubs were looking up at the Brewers for most of the season, but now it feels like the uphill climb rests squarely on the 97-win Brewers as they will be without Brandon Woodruff and certainly have more pressure to make this postseason count after coming up short so often. Milwaukee will have Jose Quintana and Trevor Megill back, and the lineup is probably scrappier and a little more consistent than the Cubs, but something tells me the Brewers’ October penchant for underachieving, the Cubs’ emerging bullpen and stellar defense, and momentum from the wild card series will be just enough to get them to the NLCS. This is a year the Brewers have honored Bob Uecker so brilliantly in posting baseball’s best record, but it feels like another postseason letdown is in the cards. Pick: Cubs in 5.

(2) Phillies vs. (3) Dodgers

The heavyweight bought of all heavyweight bouts, and much like last year with Dodgers-Padres, THIS feels like the true World Series. Philadelphia could feel the effects of losing Zack Wheeler in this series as the lineup grapples with its own struggles of having to score runs off Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow. Jhoan Duran has struggled against the Dodgers in his career and a blown save in this series feels inevitable. Considering that the Dodgers won it all last year with a rotation of Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, and Walker Buehler, how can they possibly lose this series with this ridiculous quartet of starting arms? Pick: Dodgers in 4.