NFL Championship Round Picks

And so, we’ve arrived at the Final Four. The AFC? Just as you thought. Bills vs. Chiefs 4.0 in the postseason (2.0 in the championship round, if you’re keeping score at home). The NFC? Not so much. The Eagles are hardly a surprise, but here are the plucky Commanders on the verge of the unspeakable — a Super Bowl appearance with a rookie QB? Something that has never been done in the history of the Super Bowl era.

So who has the edge? Let’s dive into some picks:

Last week: 1-1-2*

Postseason: 3-5-2

(*-I listed the Chiefs at -8.5, but the line settled at -9.5, so to “compromise,” I called that one a push).

Commanders at Eagles (-6)

Shaun King. Ben Roethlisberger. Joe Flacco. Mark Sanchez. Brock Purdy. What do all of these QBs have in common? They are the five rookie QBs to attempt to win a conference championship — and thus far, all five have come up short. And what did they have that Jayden Daniels doesn’t have? A top three scoring defense. That’s not to say Daniels can’t get it done. The rookie has looked anything but, incredibly poised and potent for a Washington team that beat Philadelphia just a few weeks ago, albeit in a game that Jalen Hurts left early with a concussion.

Speaking of Hurts, the health of his knee will be a big determining factor in who takes the rubber match between these division rivals. The Commanders have struggled to stop the run, bad news considering that Saquon Barkley is on the other side. Barkley went off for 205 yards against a good Rams defense, so it could be really problematic for Washington.

Washington is coming off a near-flawless performance in Detroit, and if we’ve learned anything from history, that is hard to sustain in the postseason, especially against a Philadelphia defense that is among the league’s best.

My gut feeling is that for as valiant as the Commanders have been, reality has to set in eventually. Philadelphia really has been the best team all year, even in a year when the Lions won 15 games but struggled mightily to stay healthy (especially on defense). Hurts just has to play mistake-free football and let Barkley and the defense do the rest. Daniels did have a five-TD performance in Week 16, but also looked overwhelmed in the first meeting. I think his performance Sunday falls somewhere in between, and the Eagles get just enough from their passing game to complement said run game and defense. Pick: Eagles 26, Commanders 23.

Bills at Chiefs (-1.5)

Now, we turn it up a notch in the late game. Buffalo and Kansas City are even at 4-4 in eight all-time meetings, but you know the subtext of that — the Chiefs are 3-0 when it matters most. Will the law of averages be kinder to the Bills so they can avoid a fourth playoff defeat in five years against the class of the NFL?

The only game the Chiefs have lost since Christmas Day 2023 was to the Bills in Week 11 in Buffalo, 30-21. The Bills looked like a slightly better team that day, and it took a heroic 26-yard TD run by Josh Allen late in the game on fourth down to cement the victory.

The knock on the Chiefs has been that they are boring, win games with their defense, and get really lucky, whether it’s some crazy play or favorable penalty call. The reality is that the Chiefs’ 16-1 season (yes, I refuse to count the joke Week 18 performance the Chiefs had with their starters all resting) has been built the same way their six-game winning streak to end last season was. Defense, special teams, and clutch offense. Oh, yeah, and having Patrick Mahomes under center.

It may feel like a boring formula, but it’s incredibly effective. So who can stop it? Well, it may just be this team.

The Bills got an MVP-caliber season from Josh Allen, but it will only matter if Allen can at least get to the big game in the Big Easy. It has been addition by subtraction with the departure of Stefan Diggs, and the running of James Cook can be very lethal (although, to be fair, he was anything but in tallying only 20 yards in the first meeting). The key to this game for Buffalo will be the same as it was against Baltimore — win the turnover battle.

Forcing three turnovers and committing zero is usually a perfect recipe for January football, even if the Bills still had to sweat out the end of their game against Baltimore last week. Buffalo’s defense turned up the pressure in the first meeting on Mahomes with two sacks and keeping him to just 196 yards passing. I believe they will come up with one or two clutch defensive plays and just enough from Josh Allen to overcome a strong Chiefs defense on the road, and finally end their hex. Pick: Bills 28, Chiefs 24.