NFL Divisional Round Picks

Last week: 2-4

A tough start to the postseason, but hey, there are still seven games left! So I’m taking another stab this weekend at some playoff success. A look at my divisional round picks:

Houston at Kansas City (-8.5)

Playoff history: Chiefs lead 2-0

The Chiefs haven’t won pretty all year long, so why start now? The first meeting was only decided by eight points, and both teams are fighting the “due theory,” as Kansas City is 6-0 in the divisional round under Patrick Mahomes, and Houston is 0-5 all-time in the divisional round (not to mention 0-5 on the road, as all of those losses have represented all of their away games). Eventually, those zeroes have to turn into ones, don’t they? It may not be this time, but Kansas City is fighting rust (this will be their first meaningful game in 23 days) and a lot of pressure in their three-peat quest, while the Texans weren’t supposed to even win last week. So I’ll take the points here. Pick: Chiefs 27, Texans 20.

Washington at Detroit (-8.5)

Playoff history: Commanders lead 3-0

The line has moved in Washington’s favor, but I’m going to go away from conventional wisdom (what good has it served me, anyway?). Detroit needed the rest more than anyone, and Washington is a young team that is going to eventually run into a buzzsaw. This is it in the Motor City, as the Lions smell the best opportunity to reach the Super Bowl they’ve ever had. David Montgomery’s return gives Washington’s defense even more headaches to deal with, and I don’t see them pressuring Jared Goff enough to rattle Detroit’s offense. Pick: Lions 37, Commanders 20.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia (-6)

Playoff history: Rams lead 2-1

The storybook effect was in full swing as the Rams won for LA (in Arizona) last week, the first game since the wildfires. Now, a ferocious defense takes its act on the road with an entire city behind them (one that just saw its baseball team add yet another Japanese superstar to its roster) against an Eagles team that is always one bad play away from seeing their angry fans turn on them. With more pressure on the home team and a hungry road team playing for a cause, I’m not only taking the points — I’m taking the full-on upset as the Rams avenge their 37-20 loss from late November with a score reminiscent of these teams’ last playoff meeting in the 2001 NFC Championship Game. Pick: Rams 29, Eagles 24.

Baltimore (-1.5) at Buffalo

Playoff history: Bills lead 1-0

The only other team we got a Lamar Jackson-Josh Allen playoff showdown, it was anything but an offensive game, as the Bills used a 101-yard pick six to a 17-3 win in front of limited fans in the 2020 postseason. But this game should be different, even in frigid temperatures and even with the Ravens missing Zay Flowers. However, said Flowers injury is going to impact this game, as Baltimore will need more from its passing game than it got in an easy win over Pittsburgh last week. The Bills sense that their time is now in a year in which they have beaten two 15-win teams (the first team in history to do so), and getting an MVP season from Josh Allen (or will it be Lamar Jackson?). Although Baltimore hammered Buffalo, 35-10, in Week 4, this is the Bills’ chance to wipe out the bad memories of last year at 6:30 p.m. on Divisional Round Sunday, when a Tyler Bass missed field goal ended their hopes of finally slaying the Chiefs. They’ll get another crack at them this year… Pick: Bills 31, Ravens 25.