NFL Week 17 Picks: Fighting to Stay Over .500

This should be the final week of the season. Week 17 used to be it, and it didn’t used to be all repetitive division matchups, either. The Titans and Jaguars are both playing meaningless games the week before the regular-season ends, which is kind of ridiculous. Anyway, I went 3-3 last week, keeping me four games over the break-even mark for the year.

Here goes with a hopeful strong finish to the 2022 season:

Last week: 3-3

Season: 29-25-4 (53.7%)

Carolina at Tampa Bay (-3)

It just isn’t going to happen this year, where the Bucs magically put together this wonderfully-complete game behind Tom Brady and the defense and surge into the playoffs. Carolina is running the “crap out of the ball,” as Brady put it in his post-game interview Sunday, and the Bucs cannot win a game unless they are playing a mediocre team and give it a full struggle. So this is Carolina’s spot to take control of the division, an improbable rise after firing its head coach and trading away its star running back. If nothing else, this matchup, which went in favor of the Cats 21-3 back in October, should be a nail-biter throughout. Pick: Panthers.

Cleveland at Washington (-2)

Back to Carson Wentz, huh? Not a good move, Washington. Wentz was the reason this team went into a 1-4 hole and Taylor Heinicke’s reward for saving the season is to be re-benched? I’d say at some point the Browns will put together a competent offensive effort, and this might be the time to do it as Washington could be a little beat-up from just having played the 49ers. Pick: Browns.

New Orleans at Philadelphia (-5.5)

This spot screams “Danger, danger!” for Philadelphia. Losing to Dallas wasn’t a big deal in theory, but there is suddenly more pressure on Philly with only two games left to lock up the division and homefield, and the Saints defense has held its last four opponents under 20 points. Gardner Minshew is a good backup, but he’s still a backup, and I have a feeling the Eagles are going to really have to work for this win against a Saints team that is improbably still alive in the NFC South race. Pick: Saints.

Arizona at Atlanta (buying to -3 at -125)

Falcons all day here. The Cardinals are just awful and despite being handed gifts repeatedly Sunday night couldn’t beat the Bucs. Atlanta needs a win as they’ve had a major fade after a 4-4 start, and this feels like the perfect spot to get one. Pick: Falcons.

Chicago at Detroit (-6)

It seemed inevitable that the Lions would return to earth, and it happened with a thud against Carolina. Now all the pressure is squarely on Detroit against a Bears team with nothing to play for, but still potentially dangerous after giving the Bills a game for three quarters last week. Something tells me the Lions will have to really scratch and claw to complete the season-sweep over Chicago. These teams put on quite a show in Week 10, with Detroit rallying from 13 down to pull out a 31-30 win. Pick: Bears.

Miami at New England (-3)

No Tua, no chance for Miami. The Dolphins were awful in the three games he missed earlier this year, and the Pats are desperate after two gut-wrenching losses. The Dolphins’ weirdly-symmetrical season will continue here (three wins, three losses, five wins, five losses). Pick: Patriots.

L.A. Rams (buying to +7 at -130) at L.A. Chargers

Baker Mayfield is on fire! At least it feels that way after the Rams dropped a 50-burger on Denver last week, while the Chargers slogged their way to a 20-3 win in Indy to lock up a playoff berth. The urgency may not be there for the Bolts this week knowing they’re in and each week feels like an audition for Mayfield, so I’ll go with the points for the “road” team in this one. Pick: Rams.

Pittsburgh (buying to +3 at -135) at Baltimore

Could the Steelers pull a 2021 Raiders and win their last three games to reach the postseason for Franco Harris just as Vegas did for John Madden? It feels like they just might. The Ravens are one of the least-imposing 10-5 teams you’ll ever see and my hunch is Lamar Jackson sits again, meaning Pittsburgh’s defense and running game may carry the day in this one. Baltimore is already in the playoffs and may just be resting Jackson for then, or at least Week 18 if the division ends up being on the line. Pick: Steelers.