Now that the unofficial first half is in the books, we can look back before we start to look forward. Who surprised us? Who disappointed us? What clubs will make the biggest improvements at the trade deadline to morph from an upstart into a legitimate title contender? And who has inside track to bring home some hardware in November?
Let’s dive in:
Pleasant Surprises
1. Paul Skenes
Yes, Skenes is still being counted as a “surprise” despite all the hype surrounding him. If you’d told anyone he wouldn’t make his MLB debut until May 11 and would still start the All-Star Game for the NL, they wouldn’t have believed it. Yet at 6-0 with a minuscule 1.90 ERA, Skenes is the real deal and has the Pirates alive in the NL wild card chase.
2. The AL Central
This division has been a laughingstock for a while now, and neither Central division has produced a pennant winner since the then-Indians squared off with the Cubs in 2016. But Cleveland (58-37), Minnesota (54-42), and Kansas City (52-45) are all in the hunt, with the Guardians and Twins sitting in playoff position while the Royals sit just two games out of a wild card spot.
3. National League Wild Card Madness
Every team in the Senior Circuit with the exception of the 1993 expansion teams, the Marlins and Rockies, have optimism that they could be playing October baseball. Six teams are three or fewer games out of a wild card spot, with the Nationals just hanging on at six back. Moreover, even the top wild card team, the Braves, only lead the last of those three-back clubs, the Cubs, by 7.5 games. Say what you want about expanded playoffs, but it’s certainly proving its worth in the National League in 2024.
Biggest Disappointments
1. Pitcher Injuries
It seems like every year we say that pitching injuries are at an all-time high, but 2024 may just take the cake. Aces are dropping like flies, with the Spencer Striders, Shane Biebers, and Kyle Bradishes of the world all going under the knife, just to name a few. Pitching depth, especially starting pitching depth, is being tested in ways it never has before. Perhaps the pitch clock is to blame; perhaps high velocity is to blame; or perhaps the fact that pitchers are treated with such kid gloves all the way from their early years to the big leagues, affecting their durability, is to blame. Whatever the reason, it’s been especially brutal to see so many talented pitchers hit the shelf.
2. The American League West (or American League Worst?)
Despite their awful start, the Houston Astros sit just one game out of first place because of what seems like an annual midseason swoon by the Seattle Mariners, who lead the tepid West by one game at just 52-46. The Texas Rangers, seemingly given up for dead, are just five back despite their very pedestrian 46-50 mark. Even the woebegone Angels, at 41-55, are just 10 games back, which is the same deficit the Astros faced on June 18. Since then, Seattle has lost 90% of its division lead, and has failed to gain a game back on any single day for 27 straight days.
3. Scott Boras Clients
What a miserable year it’s been for most of the Boras crew. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are the most notable flops, posting ERAs of 6.31 and 6.44, respectively, over just 21 combined starts. Matt Chapman (.235 BA, 13 HR), Cody Bellinger (.269 BA, 9 HR), and JD Martinez (.263 BA, 10 HR) haven’t exactly been lighting it up either, and Montgomery finally got fed up enough with Boras enough to can him as his agent. I suspect others may follow suit, as their waiting games all have had negative impacts on their seasons and, thus, future marketability.
Three Teams Who Need the Most Help at the Trade Deadline
1. Seattle Mariners – Bats, Bats, and Maybe Some Relief Help
This Mariners offense has been downright awful, and the team is wasting an amazing season from its starting rotation. A league-worst .219 batting average, coupled with a league-high 1,013 (!) strikeouts, has this Mariners team just one game up just 27 days after being ahead by 10 on both Texas and Houston. Jerry Dipoto has never shied away from a slew of trades, and he will need to find some big-time offensive help if the M’s are going to hold off the Lone Star State teams in the AL West.
2. Cleveland Guardians – Starting Pitching, and Maybe Another Bat
Hard to believe the Guardians’ offense may be a secondary need to pitching, but the rotation is not in great shape at all. Losing Shane Bieber was of course going to hurt, but the Guards’ rotation ERA is sixth-worst in baseball at 4.52, while its 484 IP are the fifth-fewest. Cleveland lacks a true ace, something that could prove very costly in October.
3. Baltimore Orioles – Any Pitching Help
Losing Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells certainly underscores the need for a starter, but you can’t ignore the shakiness of Craig Kimbrel and Yennier Cano as the team’s top-leverage arms. The bullpen’s overall numbers have been pretty good (sixth-best WHIP, sixth-fewest innings pitched, 14th in ERA) but Kimbrel has not been trustworthy in one-run games, and Danny Coloumbe being on the shelf is a big loss. Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez give the O’s a solid one-two punch, but there are major question marks after that.
First-Half Award Winners
AL Most Valuable Player – Aaron Judge, Yankees
This is basically a no-brainer, as Judge’s miserable April feels like a distant memory with his ridiculous first-half numbers: 34 HR, 85 RBI, 1.112 OPS. The Yankees have slumped into the All-Star break, but it is certainly not Judge’s fault. The big man appears well on track to his second MVP award in three years.
NL Most Valuable Player – Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
I scoffed at the Dodgers supposed “need” for Ohtani this offseason, considering their decade of dominance and the fact that they won 100 games last year. But Ohtani’s signing is more important than ever given Mookie Betts and Max Muncy’s absences from the lineup and a slew of pitching injuries. Ohtani has been every bit as good as advertised, leading the NL with 29 HR and a 1.035 OPS while batting .316 and contributing 23 stolen bases.
AL Cy Young – Tarik Skubal, Tigers
Skubal has kept the Tigers afloat, dominating to the tune of a 10-3 record and an AL-best 2.41 ERA while ranking second in the Junior Circuit with 140 strikeouts.
NL Cy Young – Chris Sale, Braves
It’s been a bounce-back season for the ages for Sale, thought to be totally cooked. But GM Alex Anthopolous absolutely fleeced the Red Sox for Sale, and he has been a savior in the absence of Spencer Strider. Sale leads the NL with 13 wins, ranking second with a 0.95 WHIP, third with 140 strikeouts, and allowing just seven HR while posting a 2.70 ERA.
AL Rookie of the Year – Luis Gil, Yankees
Gil’s torrid start has cooled a bit, but he has been stellar for the Yanks, posting a 10-5 record with a 3.17 ERA to go along with a ridiculous .171 BAA, good for second in the AL.
NL Rookie of the Year – Paul Skenes, Pirates
A total no-brainer here. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s injury certainly opened the door for Skenes, and he has taken the league by storm with his aforementioned 6-0 record and 1.90 ERA, coupled with 89 strikeouts over just 66.1 IP.
AL Manager of the Year – Stephen Vogt, Guardians
Vogt, who had never managed before, has navigated the early loss of Bieber and has overseen a grind-it-out offense that has overachieved to help the Guardians lead the AL Central at 58-37.
NL Manager of the Year – Pat Murphy, Brewers
The Brewers were expected to take a step back after trading away Corbin Burnes, but the Crew has found a way to go 55-42 in the first half and lead the NL Central by 4.5 games at the break. Murphy has gotten the most out of a young roster in his first full season as a big-league manager, having previously served as the Padres interim skipper for 96 games back in 2015.
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