Here’s something to ponder: What is more surprising? The fact that the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays are facing off in the 2026 World Series? Or the fact that they are both doing it as No. 1 seeds? The latter means that this is only the fourth Fall Classic since 1999 to feature both top seeds (but only the second where the team with baseball’s second-best record did not make it). Often times we see elite regular-season teams fail in October, like last year when the third-seeded Dodgers torched the NL playoff field by winning nine of 10 games, including seven of eight against the higher-seeded Phillies and Brewers. But to the surprise — and delight — of baseball fans, the Brewers and Rays are proving that they are anything but a fluke.
Before we dive in, let’s tackle the elephant in the room here. The lockout is a dark cloud hanging over a wonderful story, and even the smaller-market matchup is not going to deter owners for pushing for a salary cap. After all, the Dodgers — the supposed main culprits — didn’t exactly flounder, winning 100 games and reaching their third straight NLCS despite not three-peating as champions.
But for now, let’s enjoy this. Yes, I believe we certainly will have baseball in 2027. Whether it’s 162 games remains to be seen (if you want an on-the-record prediction from me, I’ll say we get 120 games in 2027), but that should not diminish what we have in front of our very eyes right now.
We always say “oh, this should be a great series,” but sometimes it doesn’t turn out that way. Two teams with similar styles don’t always produce the best results. But I have a hard time seeing either team running away with this series, especially a Brewers team that hasn’t played in eight days and is probably due for a bit of a reality check after sweeping the Dodgers.
Offense
The Brewers supposedly don’t hit homers, right? Wrong. They went deep five times in their LCS sweep of LA, but the power edge still goes to Tampa here despite the Rays actually only homering four times in six games against Cleveland. In terms of putting the ball in play, the Rays strike out fewer than anyone (just as the Blue Jays did in 2025) while the Brewers were 20th in that category. Milwaukee mashes right-handed pitching, which does bode well for a righty-heavy Tampa pitching staff. Speed is a virtual wash, with both teams in the top five of stolen bases. One key equalizer is that the Rays have struggled mightily with high velocity pitches this October, and of course the Brewers have power arms in spades. Still, a slight edge to the AL team here. Advantage: Rays.
Pitching
Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta have been as good of a 1-2 punch this postseason as anybody. The latter just won ALCS MVP and the duo — both former Brewers — have combined to go 4-0 with a 1.71 ERA in seven games (six starts). Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson aren’t far behind with a 3.12 ERA, though neither has earned a decision in their four combined starts. The real difference comes after the duos, where Nick Martinez has taken his All-Star pitching into October. In fairness, Robert Gasser was very good against the Dodgers, but Griffin Jax as a potential Game 4 starter against a bullpen game for Milwaukee (despite how good Milwaukee’s bullpen is) tips the scales in Tampa’s favor. Of course, Milwaukee’s bullpen has been unparalleled thus far, while Tampa’s has been very good as well, but Ian Seymour and Tyler Wells struggled a bit in the ALCS. Advantage: Even.
Defense
Ah, defense. Sometimes we forget about the importance of defense in baseball. Of course, the 2004 Red Sox swept the Cardinals despite making eight errors in the first two games, but let’s call that an outlier. The Brewers have been subpar this postseason, with eight errors in eight games, while the Rays — who had the 10th-most errors during the regular-season — have made just one in nine games. Milwaukee’s outfield defense has overall been very good, and perhaps stunningly, no one has attempted a stolen base yet against the Brewers this postseason. On the other side, the Yankees and Guardians combined to go four for six in steal attempts against Liam Hicks. I’ll say that the Rays’ strong defensive postseason cancels out the Brewers’ regular-season fielding edge here. Advantage: Even.
Intangibles
And now comes the hardest part: measuring which team has the “mojo,” or whose “year” it really is. Since both teams are seeking their first championship — the first World Series since 1980 featuring two first-time hopefuls and just second in the last 100 years — it’s hard to say who is “due.” Tampa is 0-2 in the Fall Classic, although this will be just the second one played at Tropicana Field. Milwaukee has never even been as a National League team (ironically, Milwaukee moved to the NL in 1998 to accommodate the expansion then-Devil Rays joining the AL). But it’s hard for me to ignore the fact that Milwaukee has won every clutch moment, won in so many different ways, and kept coming back against the seemingly-unstoppable Dodgers train. Tampa’s triumphant return to the Trop after hurricane damage forced them to Steinbrenner Field in a lost 2025 season is also a great storyline, and the atmosphere there has also been electric. But something just feels inevitable with Milwaukee, even if the layoff may cause a little rust initially. Advantage: Brewers.
Prediction
Find me someone who doesn’t want this series to go seven games and I’ll show you a dunce (unless you are a Brewers or Rays fan hoping for a stress-free sweep, but good luck with that). Last year gave us our first Game 7 since 2019, and I’d love to say we’re due for another. Both teams have a tremendous homefield edge, and although it’s quite unlikely, I wouldn’t even be totally shocked if the home teams won all seven games (last accomplished in a World Series in 2001). I think we see each team take one game on the other’s turf, but the Brew Crew holds serve in a series that features at least one extra-inning game, one walk-off, and as much as I don’t want it, a controversial call that decides a game (2013 World Series Game 3 obstruction walk-off, anyone?). I believe the confidence that Milwaukee has after going 7-1 against two very strong opponents (the NL was the better league all year) will be enough against an equally-fearless Rays club. Also put me down for a dominant, legacy relief appearance from the Miz in Game 7. Pick: Brewers in 7.
MVP: Jacob Misiorowski.
Be the first to comment on "2026 World Series Preview: This is… Chalk?"