Back to the Futures: The Best NFC Long-Term Bets

Alright, a few weeks ago we looked at the AFC’s most trustworthy futures bets, and things are holding up nicely there with the Bills’ continued ascent, the Chiefs’ persistent question marks (and now a potential Patrick Mahomes injury), Baltimore’s inability to change fans’ perception with a win over a pitiful Giants team, and Pittsburgh falling well short in its test against Philadelphia.

Now, let’s deep dive to into an NFC field that suddenly looks much more open than it did a few weeks ago. Several futures bets that once seemed appealing may no longer be as safe, and some dark horses are potentially emerging.

A look at the field and level of confidence for each futures bet (with each team’s best odds, and opening odds):

Detroit Lions (+230 in DraftKings; Open: +500)

The safest NFC futures bet just a couple short weeks ago suddenly looks a bit shaky due to a massive rash of injuries. The defense was stricken the most, but now David Montgomery’s likely-season-ending injury feels even larger. The Lions’ offense did all it could on Sunday, putting up 42 points against Buffalo, but the defense couldn’t stop the Bills’ offense. Minnesota has refused to go away, and at 12-2 has a chance to take the division if it wins out. That would put Detroit on a path of three road games with a shaky defense, meaning +230 odds at the moment feels like very limited value. Still, Detroit isn’t 12-2 by accident, and has overcome a lot of adversity to this point. Their league-leading +177 point-differential shows how dominant they can be, and they won’t just roll over despite having a lot of players on the shelf. Confidence: Medium.

Philadelphia Eagles (+230 in DraftKings; Open: +700)

The Eagles are picking up steam every week, winners of 10 straight after a 2-2 start. It’s easy to forget that before their December/January collapse last year, they were the consensus best team in football at 10-1. And now, Philly has a terrific shot to get a first-round bye with the potential of Detroit’s injuries derailing their inside track. If the City of Brotherly Love has an opportunity to host another NFC Championship Game, it could very well mean that a dome team has to play outdoors with a Super Bowl berth at stake. You’d have to like the Eagles’ odds, but asking a team to go from 2-2 to 18-2 is a lot. The 2003 Eagles found that out, going from 2-3 to 11-3 before a late-season loss to San Francisco, and ultimately a loss to Carolina in the NFC Championship Game. Confidence: High.

Minnesota Vikings (+650 in Caesars; Open: +3500)

This is the time when you could start kicking yourself for not taking the Vikings before the season started, but who knew Sam Darnold would be the second coming of Fran Tarkenton? Now, the Vikings story is more than “cute,” it’s very real, and so too is the possibility that Minnesota could win the NFC North and snag the first-round bye if they get a little help from Philly losing. The Vikings have not played in a Super Bowl since the 1976 season, with some painstakingly-close losses in title games since, so the true value of this bet may be dependent on seeding. A three-on-the-road run seems unlikely, but taking two at home with a strong aerial attack in a dome and a fast defense is a tempting proposition. Confidence: Medium.

Green Bay Packers (+800 in Bet365; Open: +1000)

Similar to last year, the Packers are playing well down the stretch and will enter January as a wild card team that is not to be taken lightly. Jordan Love has playoff experience under his belt, and Josh Jacobs is a difference-maker in the run game. The defense is playing well, and the Packers can really build their confidence if they can beat the Vikings in Week 17 which, if nothing else, could position them ahead of Minnesota in the wild card race. 8/1 in a crowded field is actually a solid value when you consider the injury concerns of Detroit, and the pressure on Philadelphia. Confidence: Medium to High.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1700 in Caesars; Open: +3000)

Mike Evans’ return is carrying this Bucs offense, but of course, don’t discredit Baker Mayfield, and even the much-maligned defense is improving. A fourth-straight NFC South title won’t raise eyebrows per se, but winning a playoff game last year gave the Bucs a little street cred, and when you consider that they have wins over Detroit and Philadelphia this year, also taking the Chiefs to overtime, it’s clear this team is capable of hanging with the big boys. Winning the division would also allow Tampa to start its playoff run at home again, which worked out well last year when they shellacked the Eagles, 32-9. With long odds but an inside track at another division title, the Bucs just may be a good sleeper to hitch your wagon to. Confidence: Medium.

Los Angeles Rams (+1800 in DraftKings; Open: +1400)

The Rams suddenly seem like a chic pick considering their near-win against Detroit in the wild card round last year and the fact that they’re just three seasons removed from a Super Bowl title. Puka Nacua is a beast and he and Cooper Kupp make up quite a tandem. A week ago, they outscored the Bills in a thriller, and their NFC West destiny is in their hands. Will that take that far enough, though? Can the Rams, a likely No. 4 seed, beat a top NFC North wildcard, then go on the road and possibly beat two of Philadelphia, Detroit, Green Bay, or Minnesota? That seems like a longshot. Confidence: Low.

The rest of the field

How about the long, longshots? The only one worth consideration would be the Commanders (+2600 in Caesars; Open: +7000), a team with a strong chance to reach the postseason and a dynamic rookie QB. As mentioned in the AFC article, no rookie QB has ever reached the Super Bowl, but Jayden Daniels is electric and could at least win a playoff game or even two perhaps. Beyond Washington, Seattle (+6600) is dealing with an injury to Geno Smith, and Arizona. (+8000) is hanging on by a thread in an up-and-down season. Atlanta (+8500) has Kirk Cousins, so enough said. And the sun has officially set on San Francisco (+10000).