I don’t know that “Super Wild Card Weekend” is ever truly that super, but six games is a lot to digest (on top of 272, not 256, that we now get in the regular season). We have a bit of deja vu this year, as six of the eight division winners from 2023 repeated, and 10 of the 14 playoff teams overall.
Four of the six games are regular-season rematches, and one divisional game to boot. Does one team have an edge in rematches? Do rookie quarterbacks really face a disadvantage?
Let’s dive in now to game picks and analysis:
Chargers (-3) at Texans
Playoff history: First meeting
There is no official NFL playoff scheduling template, but the Texans have never NOT played the opening Saturday game, where the league sticks the least appealing matchup. And that hasn’t changed here. The Bolts have not inspired confidence in beating good teams; only two wins over Denver represent triumphs over postseason teams. Houston has inspired even less, losing its two best receivers and losing to the Chiefs and Ravens within a four-day span.
Last year, the Texans played the underdog card beautifully in ripping apart the Browns in this spot. But CJ Stroud has looked a bit shaky of late, and Jim Harbaugh has instilled a confidence we haven’t seen in the Chargers since 2018. Los Angeles brings the league’s best scoring defense to the table, while Houston has failed to top 23 points in any of its last five games. Give me the well-coached Chargers to notch their first playoff win since 2018. Pick: Chargers 24, Texans 17.
Steelers at Ravens (-10)
Playoff history: Steelers lead 3-1
For the first time in five playoff meetings, these bitter AFC North rivals will face off in Baltimore. Lamar Jackson has a lot of pressure on him, having gone just 2-4 despite two (and possibly three after this year) MVP awards. The Steelers haven’t won a postseason game since 2016, but even more concerning is their recent downward trend of four straight losses.
Pittsburgh nipped Baltimore in the teams’ first meeting, but the Ravens won by 17 in December and have momentum with four straight wins. 10 is a large number, especially with the perception being that the Ravens are a mortal lock to walk over a Steelers team limping into January.
The Ravens should advance, but in a game played in chilly weather pitting rivals against one another for a third time, we might get a slightly-closer-than-expected contest. Pick: Ravens 24, Steelers 16.
Broncos at Bills (-8.5)
Playoff history: Bills lead 1-0
This is just the second playoff meeting between these teams, with the Bills winning the 1991 AFC Championship Game over Denver, 10-7. But you can expect more than 17 points total on Sunday, even in chilly, potentially-snowy weather.
The Broncos ripped the Chiefs’ backups to shreds, 38-0, perhaps giving Bo Nix and the offense a boost of confidence as the rookie makes his first career playoff start. The pressure, as with Baltimore, is squarely on Buffalo here as the Broncos are making their first postseason appearance since the 2015 season. Josh Allen is 4-0 in the wild card round at home, and many feel this is the strongest Bills team since those 1990s AFC championship teams.
So can the Bills roll over Denver, or are they also in for a potential nail-biter against a team they should beat. My hunch says the latter, as I don’t see a big-time blowout here. The Bills won by 14 over the Steelers in this spot last year, but the 31-17 score was somewhat deceiving because it took Buffalo a while to put the game away. This one could play out in similar fashion. Pick: Bills 27, Broncos 20.
Packers at Eagles (-4.5)
Playoff history: Eagles lead 2-1
This one almost looks like a mismatch on paper, simply given that the Packers have not beaten any top teams this year, including the Eagles when they lost 34-29 in the season opener in Brazil. In the teams’ fourth-ever playoff meeting — all in Philadelphia — I expect a strong performance by the Eagles to atone for last year’s flatlining against Tampa in this round. A rested Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts against Jordan Love with a sore elbow feels like a recipe for disaster for Green Bay.
This feels like a good spot for Barkley to go off, even against a seventh-ranked Packers run defense. Philadelphia has the second-best rushing attack in football statistically, and with a week off after a 2,000-yard season, Barkley could carry the day. Pick: Eagles 37, Packers 20.
Commanders at Buccaneers (-3)
Playoff history: Buccaneers lead 2-1
Jayden Daniels’ first career start was in Tampa, and now his first career playoff start will be as well. So what have the Commanders learned since that 37-20 loss in Week 1? A lot, to be sure. Washington was the league’s biggest surprise, and brings the league’s third-ranked rushing defense into this game, of which Daniels was a big part.
Of course, the Buccaneers’ offense ranks third overall, and Baker Mayfield has garnered some postseason experience with playoff wins for both the Browns and Bucs in his career. Last week felt like a trap game, as odd as it feels to refer to a division-clinching game as such. The return of Marshon Lattimore not only gives Washington a viable threat to shut down Mike Evans, but adds some juice as the two players have a contentious history. The winner of that key battle could very well determine the winner of this game.
As much as I want to pick a Commanders upset, the Bucs, despite two fewer wins, have a knack for rising to the occasion this year. After all, the Bucs — along with the Bills — are now the only two teams in NFL history to beat two 14-win teams in a single season, having taken down the Lions and Eagles, not to mention the Commanders and Chargers. In what figures to be a high-scoring battle, I’ll take the more experienced club here. Pick: Buccaneers 31, Commanders 27.
Vikings (-1) at Rams
Playoff history: Vikings lead 5-2
The last time the Vikings visited SoFi Stadium, it was on the heels of a loss to the Detroit Lions. Nearly three months later, the plot is the same, and there is legitimate concern that the Vikings were outclassed and exposed by the Lions on Sunday night.
Some think the Rams can be a sleeper team in the NFC for a Super Bowl run, understandable given their weapons at wide receiver and the emergence of Kyren Williams. Minnesota’s biggest question mark may be quarterback Sam Darnold, who struggled against the blitz Sunday night and may face a heavy dose of it on Monday night.
The Rams excelled in this spot three years ago, destroying the Cardinals on MNF before going on a run to win Super Bowl LVI. Minnesota’s stubbornness to not run the ball in the red zone may be telling; if Kevin O’Connell gets too pass happy in those situations again, it could be another frustrating trip out west for the Vikes. The deflation of playing a wild card game despite being 14-3 may also feel like a gut punch for a franchise that has dealt with its fair share of disappointment over the years. Pick: Rams 23, Vikings 20.
Editorial update: This analysis/pick was submitted before it was announced that this game would be moved to Arizona in the wake of the wildfires in the Los Angeles area. Despite the move, the pick stands. The Rams do not inherently have a major homefield advantage in LA, as their stadium is often overrun with visiting fans.
Additional editorial note: How cool would it be if the NFL had been able to relocate this game to St. Louis? The city that lost its team nearly a decade ago could have one more great memory after suffering such heartbreak with the team moving out west. San Diego would also be a terrific alternative. The Chargers are on the road, but San Diego has also been starved for football for almost as long as St. Louis, and the league could have kept the game in Southern California.
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