Division Series Picks: Who Cracks the Final Four?

The miniseries version of the MLB postseason is over: now, it feels like we have the big boys going head-to-head.

Are we destined for another Dodgers-Yankees World Series that would seemingly justify the impending lockout? Or will a Brewers-Rays World Series give the players union a boost and make the owners relent (if only a sliver)?

Let’s dive in to the ALDS and NLDS, as I’ll try to keep it rolling on the heels of a 3-1 wild card round:

ALDS

(6) White Sox vs. (2) Guardians

This should be fun. You could argue (I know I do) that this Guardians act, as cute as it seems, has gotten stale. The Guardians have by far the longest title drought (1948), while the White Sox are carrying virtually none of the playoff baggage that their counterparts are. Cleveland became the first team ever to make the playoffs despite not having no hitters bat .300, hit 20 homers, or drive in 75 runs. Chicago, on the other hand, ranked fifth in MLB in home runs.

Cleveland has strong pitching, make no mistake. Parker Messick and Gavin Williams are an especially formidable 1-2 punch, and Cade Smith has emerged as the AL’s best closer. But there is a reason the Guardians have continued to fall short in October, and a big part is their lack of offense, and quite possibly the burden of continual playoff failures.

Give me the plucky upstart White Sox, who won the season series vs. Cleveland, 7-6, to keep this Cinderella season going and prove that winning the AL Central crown isn’t that big of a deal. Pick: White Sox in 5.

(4) Yankees vs. (1) Rays

Frankly, this is the American League Championship Series right here. The winner is going to the World Series, which highlights the fault of the current playoff format. The top teams in the league shouldn’t be facing off this early, and yet here we are.

The Yankees have four aces in their rotation, and the Rays feel like a Cinderella ready to turn into a pumpkin despite the fact that they are actually a very good team and well-deserving of winning the AL East at 98-64. Still, the fact that the Yankees so easily disposed of the Red Sox while scoring 17 runs without the services of Aaron Judge (or even Giancarlo Stanton), makes me believe they are the best team in the Junior Circuit despite not winning the division.

I expect the Rays to take this down to the wire, but I have a hard time seeing New York losing two years in a row in this round to a division rival. For the all consternation about the Yankees’ playoff struggles (27 World Series titles, yet none since 2009), the Rays have never won it all, and their last AL East-winning season ended with a deflating four-game ALDS lost to division rival Boston. It’s hard for teams that don’t have the financial resources that the Yankees do to win in October because it’s hard for non-stars to continue to perform like them the way they do in the regular season, and that might be what keeps the Rays from keeping their dream season alive. Pick: Yankees in 5.

NLDS

(4) Padres vs. (1) Brewers

Both of these teams are red hot, with San Diego on a 19-3 heater and Milwaukee entering the playoffs on a 15-3 run. Then again, at 103-59, the Brewers have really been hot all year. But I have my doubts about the Brewers for the same reason I do about the Rays. First of all, what happens if the Brewers lose Game 1 with Jacob Misiorowski? Can a young group of starters behind him hold down the fort until a possible Game 5?

Secondly, I talk a lot about playoff baggage, and the Brewers’ is getting pretty heavy. Last year after a franchise-record 97-win season, they squeaked by the Cubs only to be swept by the big bad Dodgers. This year, after a franchise-record 103-win season, a loss in the divisional round would be even more devastating.

San Diego can shorten the game with its bullpen and has finally begun to click on offense. From a baseball perspective, for those who don’t want to see the Dodgers pull off a threepeat, the Padres look like the best option to knock off LA, not the Brewers. It just feels like the Brewers are the kind of franchise where the better they play in the regular season, the harder the fall will be in October. Could San Diego be looking across the field at a Brewers team that might be a reincarnation of the 2006 Chargers? Prediction: Padres in 4.

(3) Braves vs. (2) Dodgers

And now, the real season begins for the Dodgers. As we inch towards a lockout that they are front and center in as far as people’s perception of the main culprits, it once again feels like baseball fans are attaching the future of baseball to LA’s success in October. A threepeat does feel inevitable, mainly because the Dodgers’ rotation is one of the best ever assembled — and that’s without Shohei Ohtani, who at least is healthy enough to be in the lineup. Somehow, even with Ohtani’s injury, the Dodgers felt that a rotation of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Roki Sasaki wasn’t enough, so enter Tarik Skubal. How can an Atlanta rotation with trade deadline pickup Tyler Mahle as its No. 2 starter behind Chris Sale possibly compete?

The Braves do have a very good lineup, arguably one of the best in baseball. They also bring experience to the table, with a few guys who were there when the Braves actually took down the Dodgers in the 2021 NLCS. They won’t go quietly by any means, but the rotation is a major concern and the bullpen is questionable (so much so that manager Walt Weiss felt the need to use Chris Sale to close things out in Game 3 of the NL wild card series, though granted the ‘pen had been worked pretty hard the first two games). Even an off day before Game 1 may not be enough for a wary Atlanta team that will fight its darnedest to make this a series, but ultimately fall short. Prediction: Dodgers in 5.