NFL Week 14 Picks

Last week: 7-8-1
Season: 94-93-5

Denver (-10.5) at Oakland

Analysis: The Broncos are on a tear
since their last loss, a 31-21 defeat at the hands of New England
that left them at 2-3. They’ve won seven straight, while the hapless
Raiders have lost five in a row. Oakland has virtually no offense and
a mediocre defense, while Denver brings it on both sides of the ball.
Peyton Manning is in midseason form after an inauspicious start, and
despite the short week the Broncos should take it to the Raiders, who
play hard for Dennis Allen but simply lack the talent to stay with a
team like the Broncos. Broncos

Atlanta (-3.5) at
Carolina

Analysis: The
Falcons are rolling at 11-1 and well on their way to homefield
advantage, while the 3-9 Panthers are playing for pride. Hard to
believe the spread is only 3.5, but then again Carolina nearly upset
the Falcons in Week 4, falling on a last-second field goal, 30-28.
Cam Newton’s struggles and Atlanta’s rejuvenated run game make this a
relatively easy pick. Falcons

Baltimore at
Washington (-2.5)

Analysis: RG3 is
the real deal – this much we know. But the Ravens defense, as
depleted as it is, won’t give up easy yards to the rookie sensation.
Baltimore needs to bounce back after losing to Charlie Batch,
something they’ve always done under John Harbaugh (they haven’t lost
consecutive games since October 2009). The momentum favors
Washington, but experience favors Baltimore, as does a porous
Redskins secondary. It should be a very tight one. Ravens

Chicago (-3) at
Minnesota

Analysis: The
Vikings are a different team at home, where they are 5-1. Chicago was
stunned last week, losing in overtime to a Seahawks team that had
only won once on the road. But Christian Ponder’s continued struggles
may doom the Vikings, even if Adrian Peterson goes off the way he did
last week at Lambeau Field. The Bears defense should be out with
something to prove after the way last week’s game ended. Bears

Dallas at
Cincinnati (-3)

Analysis: The
Bengals are beating the teams they are supposed to beat and stand at
7-5 and very much alive in the AFC wild card chase. The Cowboys are
not only alive in the wild card race in the NFC but also in the NFC
East race, and the question is whether Dallas’ defense will have an
answer for Cincy’s rejuvenated run game and AJ Green. The Cowboys
have sulked when asked to rise to the occasion this year, and
Cincinnati has the momentum. The Bengals should prevail in what
figures to be a nailbiter. Bengals

Kansas City at
Cleveland (-6.5)

Analysis: The
red-hot Browns are riding a two-game winning streak into a showdown
with one of the league’s worst teams, an emotionally drained Chiefs
squad coming off just its second win of the season last week.
Normally it would be difficult to spot the Browns nearly a touchdown,
but because of the circumstances surrounding the Chiefs and the
emotional energy last week’s game required, they could fall flat this
week in Brady Quinn and Romeo Crennel’s return to Cleveland. Browns

New York Jets
(-2.5) at Jacksonville

Analysis: No word
yet on who will start under center for the Jets, but will it matter
against the 2-10 Jags. Jacksonville’s defense is a mess, meaning the
Jets may actually find the end zone a couple of times on Sunday. New
York should concentrate on running the ball against the soft Jags
front and should get win No. 6. Jets

Philadelphia at
Tampa Bay (-9)

Analysis: The
Bucs’ comeback in Denver fell short last week, and one has to wonder
if 6-6 Tampa Bay will fade down the stretch. Philadelphia is going
with rookie QB Nick Foles the rest of the way, but Sunday’s star
could be Bryce Brown, even against Tampa’s first-ranked run defense. Brown
has put up big numbers the last two weeks but has been careless with
the football. With all the pressure on Tampa Bay here, Philly should
hang with the Bucs. Eagles

St. Louis at
Buffalo (-3)

Analysis: The
5-6-1 Rams have shown they are making strides under Jeff Fisher –
at least when they play within their division. Problem is, St. Louis
is 1-6-1 against foes outside the NFC West, and Buffalo has fared
well against the teams it “should” beat. The Rams are still in
the thick of things in the NFC while Buffalo really isn’t in the AFC,
and the keys to this game could be the weather and the performance of
the running backs. Despite an offense that struggles at times to move
the ball, the Rams defense could come up with some turnovers, which
Buffalo is prone to. This one figures to be close throughout. Rams

San Diego at
Pittsburgh (-7)

Analysis: The big
question is whether Big Ben will return for the Steelers, but Charlie
Batch proved plenty capable last week in leading Pittsburgh to a win
over the Ravens. The Chargers have all but quit on Norv Turner in
another non-playoff year and are likely to roll over for a team that
just regained its momentum last week. Ben or no Ben, this could get
ugly for the Bolts. Steelers

Tennessee at
Indianapolis (-5.5)

Analysis: Is there
a better story in the league this year than the Colts? “Chuckstrong”
has been their motto as they march towards an improbable playoff
berth a year after finishing with the league’s worst record, and most
of the credit goes toward rookie quarterback Andrew Luck. Last week,
Luck engineered a masterful fourth-quarter drive, capping it with a
touchdown flip to Donnie Avery with no time remaining to knock off
the Lions on the road, 35-33. Tennessee forced Indy to overtime in
the teams’ first meeting in late October, before Ballard ended things
with a spectacular 16-yard touchdown catch and run. Tennessee’s
anemic offense makes them a difficult pick, but Indianapolis has all
the pressure here and if there’s one player that could
single-handedly turn this into a game, it’s Chris Johnson. CJ2K may
find success against the Colts’ soft run defense, which could make
this into another tight one. Titans

Miami at San
Francisco (-10)

Analysis: The
49ers let one slip through their hands last week – literally. Now
the question is how they respond in a game they should win with ease.
Miami’s young quarterback has shown promise, but Ryan Tannehill and
the Dolphins are out of the playoff race in the AFC. Though the 49ers
have blown a few teams out at home, this could be a bit of a trap
game coming off a five-quarter marathon and with a trip to New
England looming. Perhaps a pitchers-duel style win is to be expected.
Dolphins

Arizona at Seattle
(-10.5)

Analysis: Can
anyone believe the Cardinals were once 4-0? Now 4-8, Arizona is a
complete mess, while 7-5 Seattle is smelling a playoff berth and
possibly an NFC West crown. The Seahawks lost the first meeting on
opening day and that should be fresh in their minds as they take on a
punchless team with no answer at quarterback and a defense whose only
fight is amongst each other (for the record, according to Kerry
Rhodes, there was NOT a spitting incident between he and Darnell
Dockett). Seahawks

New Orleans at New
York Giants (-4.5)

Analysis: The 5-7
Saints may just be playing for pride, putting all the pressure here
on the suddenly-slumping 7-5 Giants. Big Blue’s lead in the NFC East
has dwindled to one game over Dallas and Washington and now they take
on a Saints team that has beaten them three straight times, all of
them of the blowout variety. Drew Brees is 4-0 lifetime head-to-head
with Eli Manning, and with the Giants’ usual second-half swoon in
full effect, this is a dangerous spot for New York to be in against a
high-flying Saints team that is also a little extra rested from
playing last Thursday. Saints

Detroit at Green
Bay (-7)

Analysis: The
Lions continue to get punched in the guy at the end of games,
suffering three straight heartbreaking defeats at home in the final
minute or decided late. One of those was a 24-20 loss to Green Bay,
whom they haven’t beaten at Lambeau Field since 1991. The Packers won
last week despite being torched on the ground by Adrian Peterson, but
they shouldn’t have to worry about being burned by the run this week.
As they get healthier and the Lions’ season gets worse, the more this
game starts to look like another lopsided Lions loss at Lambeau (try
saying that five times fast). Packers

Houston at New
England (-3.5)

Analysis: This is
a marquee matchup that ESPN lucked into considering some of the other
games on their slate (see: Panthers-Eagles, Jets-Titans). All the
numbers seem to favor New England, who has been in this situation
before. The Texans have not lost on the road yet, and their one loss
was to a team perhaps most similar to New England in Green Bay
(42-24). Houston’s defense is semi-depleted and has been very exposed
the last several weeks, especially against the pass. Even with Rob
Gronkowski sidelined, Tom Brady should pick them apart. Despite the
Texans’ 11-1 mark, this one actually has the smell of a blowout.
Patriots

UPSET of the WEEK

SAINTS over GIANTS. The
Giants shot themselves in the foot many a time on Monday night and at
7-5 could be feeling the heat from Dallas and Washington. The Saints
have owned them with three straight blowouts and New York has always
struggled in the second half under Tom Coughlin. Even outdoors, the
Saints could put up some points in this game and prolong the Giants’
swoon.