Line: Patriots by 2½
This
isn’t a movie I wanted to watch again, but it’s the Super Bowl, so we give it
our due diligence as American citizens. The Patriots and Giants at least figure
to put on a heck of a show, just as they did four years ago in Glendale. Rather
evenly matched, there are advantages and disadvantages for both clubs. A
further look:
Quarterbacks – Tom Brady vs. Eli Manning
“I
believe in Eli,” said Deion Sanders. Many people now do, but who isn’t
convinced Tom Brady is going to seize the opportunity to finally join his idol
Joe Montana? Both quarterbacks have the moxie to win in the fourth quarter, but
Brady is rarely rattled, even though the Giants got after him in Super Bowl
XLII. Despite Eli’s fourth-quarter heroics in 2011, no one is better with the
game on the line than the Golden Boy Brady. Edge: PATRIOTS.
Running backs – Green-Ellis/Woodhead vs. Jacobs/Bradshaw
The
thunder/lightning combo of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw can be lethal when
they get going. The Patriots don’t need to run much but were effective doing so
in the AFC championship game. Both Giants backs can make the big play when they
need to, giving them a slight advantage. Edge: GIANTS.
Receivers – Welker/Branch vs. Cruz/Nicks/Manningham
Perhaps
no one is more underrated going into this game than Brady’s BFF Deion Branch.
He gives the Patriots a vertical element many don’t feel they have. Welker is
deadly from the slot and can beat teams deep. The Giants’ trio is also quite
imposing, particularly the record-setting Cruz. Nicks did not play in the
teams’ first meeting, but Manningham came up with a clutch touchdown reception
in the fourth quarter. With New England’s secondary being even more suspect
than the Giants’, New York gets the slight nod here. Edge: GIANTS.
Tight ends – Gronkowski/Hernandez vs. Jake Ballard
This
one isn’t even close. Even if Rob Gronkowski’s ankle isn’t 100%, he and
Hernandez are matchup nightmares for defenses. Both tight ends caught
touchdowns in the first meeting and will be key this time around. Ballard also
made two enormous catches in that game, including the winning score, but he
does not present nearly the type of challenges that New England’s duo does. Edge:
PATRIOTS.
Defensive line – Wilfork vs. JPP/Osi/Tuck
Vince
Wilfork is a nightmare for interior linemen, but the front four of the Giants
is ferocious. New York matches up well with New England because of their
ability to get pressure on Brady without blitzing, and if the Giants get the
lead this group could tee off. Edge: GIANTS.
Linebackers – Mayo/Spikes vs. Boley/Kiwanuka
Jerod
Mayo and Brandon Spikes are fast and instinctive and capable of making plays in
the passing game, even though Michael Boley and Mathias Kiwanuka are stout as
well. The speed of New England’s linebackers, including Rob Ninkovich, could
hinder the Giants’ running game. Edge: PATRIOTS.
Secondary – Arrington/Chung vs. Rolle/Webster/Phillips
Neither
secondary is very dependable and struggles to prevent the big play. Julian
Edelman, a natural wideout, could see time playing DB. New England’s secondary
is opportunistic and New York’s is physical. But the veteran experience of the
Giants’ defensive backs makes their impact potentially more prominent. Edge:
GIANTS.
Special Teams
Both
kickers are solid and both punters are dependable, while coverage teams are
adequate. Danny Woodhead is an underrated returner despite a fumble last week,
and Julian Edelman could potentially break one on punt return duties. Edge:
PATRIOTS.
Coaching – Bill Belichick vs. Tom Coughlin
Some
are wondering if Tom Coughlin will become a Hall of Fame coach with a win, but
there is no doubt about Belichick. He could lead the Patriots to a winning
season with a roster of high school players as long as Brady was still his
quarterback. He even proved he can win without Brady when he did so with Matt
Cassel. Any deficiencies the Patriots have, Belichick can mask. And weaknesses
the Giants have, he can exploit. Coughlin is a good motivator and a smart
coach, but he is no Belichick. Edge: PATRIOTS.
Intangibles
The
revenge factor and the fact that the writing has seemingly been on the wall
since the day the lockout was lifted heavily favor New England. Tom Brady is
not likely to lose two straight Super Bowls, to the same team no less. He has a
chance to finally join his idol Joe Montana in football lore, and having
already played the Giants this year Belichick will make the necessary
adjustments. Only eight players remain from the 2007 squad that lost to the
Giants, but New England will be calm and collected because of their coach. The
Pats have won 10 in a row, and seem to have that good karma that touches them
just about every year going again. The notion of the Giants repeating their
2007 postseason gem seems to good to be true. Edge: PATRIOTS.
Prediction
As
I said above, a franchise with so much good luck and karma losing two straight
Super Bowls to the same team seems highly unlikely. The Giants will be in big
trouble if their pass rush is ineffective, because like New England they have
issues in the secondary. As good as New York’s receivers are, a slow start
could doom the Giants. They play games close to the vest, and if we’ve learned
anything from last week’s game, there is just too much that can go wrong
against New England in a close game, even when considering what happened in
Super Bowl XLII. The ultimate cherry on top would be Brady surpassing his idol
Montana for most playoff wins in the city of one of his biggest rivals. Patriots
33, Giants 23.
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