NFL Week 14 Picks: I’m Over .500 – Will Bucs Be After Sunday? Can Lions Tame Vikings?

What a Week 13 it was — even for me! After a 6-3 mark I’m back above water at 15-14, despite the Bucs failing to cap off a 7-2 week for me with a late win-but-no-cover. Speaking of the Bucs, can they now get over .500 in San Francisco? Can the Bengals muster up another emotional effort against a Browns team it has been owned by of late? Let’s dive into some Week 14 picks!

Last week: 6-3

Season: 15-14-3

Las Vegas (-6.5) at Los Angeles Rams

Finally, the Raiders are looking a little more like the team that earned a playoff berth in 2021. Josh Jacobs has been a one-man wrecking crew and now will have to try and shoulder the load on a short week. Fortunately for the Raiders, the defending champion Rams are a shell of themselves and could be so desperate they turn to newly-signed Baker Mayfield tonight. Las Vegas can smell a wild card opportunity in the crowded AFC and badly needs this one to stay in the hunt. After a heartbreaking loss to Seattle on Sunday, the Rams could be a little deflated. Pick: Raiders.

Minnesota at Detroit (-2.5)

Take note: the Lions are favored in December at home against a 10-2 team! What has this world come to? I’ll tell you what — a world in which Jared Goff is setting it on fire. The Lions are red-hot, a team no one wants to face, and the Vikings’ luck in close games has to run out at some point, right? Give me the Lions to stay hot here despite the sudden expectations heaped upon them. Pick: Lions.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3)

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the Steelers are playing well in December. Of course you have, because Mike Tomlin is a pro at getting the most out of his teams. He may not avoid his first losing record, but the Steelers will be a tough out down the stretch as Kenny Pickett improves every week. The Ravens are dealing with some uncertainty around Lamar Jackson, and with the level of inconsistency shown on offense, my pick will be the same regardless of who is under center for Baltimore. Pick: Steelers.

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-6)

The Browns didn’t really win last week, the Texans just lost. But the Browns do nothing but win against the Bengals, it seems, having taken five straight and eight of nine in this matchup. Something tells me Cincy will have to scrap and claw, especially coming off an emotional win over KC. Deshaun Watson should play better after dealing with some expected rust against Houston, and this should be tight throughout. Pick: Browns.

Houston at Dallas (-17)

Call it wishful thinking because I will actually be attending this game in-person, but I think the Texans can force a gentlemanly cover. This, of course, will be more a case of the Cowboys letting their guard down than the Texans actually being competent enough to stay competitive. But Dallas just hung 54 points on Indy and may well be looking ahead to some bigger games, while the Texans are a virtual shoo-in for the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. If for no other reason than this is the battle of Texas and I want to see a slightly-functional game by Houston, I’ll take the points. Pick: Texans.

Philadelphia (-7) at New York Giants

Last year, Jalen Hurts’ worst game came in New York against the Giants. This year, Hurts is playing at an MVP-level and the Eagles look unflappable. That said, the Giants are desperate and trying to prove that a descending to earth isn’t inevitable, and should give everything they have in order to keep it close. Pick: Giants.

Carolina at Seattle (buying to -3 at -135)

Could the Seahawks be looking past Carolina to San Francisco? It’s possible, but not probable. Carolina is a team that the Seahawks absolutely, positively have to beat if they want to stay in contention. It may not be easy, but I’ll take the home team to keep rolling after last week’s come-from-behind win over the Rams. Pick: Seahawks.

Tampa Bay at San Francisco (-4)

Tom Brady is coming home for just the second time in his career, having previously started once in San Francisco and winning in 2016. He is 7-0 lifetime against QBs making their first career start, which will be the case with Brock Purdy. Despite losing Jimmy G for the year, Purdy more than held his own as San Francisco won its fifth straight against an equally-hot Miami team. I want to pick the Bucs to keep the momentum going, but at the same time all good streaks must end, and the Bucs could be a little spent after that comeback and playing on a short week traveling all the way across the country. Pick: 49ers.

Miami at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

I can’t tell who this is a more dangerous spot for, the middling and fading Chargers or the back-to-earth (at least for a week) Dolphins. Miami needs this one badly, with the Bills likely to beat the Jets and then Miami traveling to Buffalo the week after. But the Chargers need it more, sitting at 6-6 and at risk of falling out of the playoff race completely. Los Angeles has failed in primetime on several occasions in 2022, but Miami, in general, may not be ready for primetime. Pick: Chargers.

New England (-1.5) at Arizona

The Patriots are clinging to life in the hyper-competitive AFC East. Bill Belichick usually gets things going when this team is on a losing slide, and New England is trying to avoid three straight losses here. Arizona could be the perfect patsy, an outfit with no real direction and maybe playing to save Kliff Kingsbury’s job. Belichick lost to a former QB a few weeks ago in Minnesota’s Kevin O’Connell, but should outfox another ex-Patriots backup in Kingsbury this time. Pick: Patriots.