NFL Week 15 Picks: Matchup of Hopefuls Highlight Slate

Alright, I’ll take a 5-5 mark after a rocky start to the week. I sit one game over .500 for the season, just like a number of playoff-hopefuls in the crowded AFC. Week 15 features some big jockeying-for-position matchups, including Lions-Jets in the Meadowlands, Titans-Chargers in LA, and Pats-Raiders in Vegas. Then, Sunday night features two NFC East teams fighting for playoff jockeying in the NFC with the Giants Commanders. Who gets the nod? Let’s dive in:

Last week: 5-5

Season: 20-19-3

Indianapolis at Minnesota (-4)

Straight out of the “something knows someone playbook” here, I ask why a 10-3 Vikings team with only one home loss is favored by just four over a 4-8-1 Colts team? The Colts are coming off a bye and the Vikings’ defense is in the midst of a historically bad stretch having allowed over 400 yards in five straight, so my gut tells me they’ll have to work extra hard to fend off a rested Colts team. Pick: Colts.

Baltimore at Cleveland (-3)

The Ravens are one of three teams still undefeated in division play at 3-0, but they could be starting a third-string QB in Anthony Brown against a Browns team that needs to see a good game from Deshaun Watson. My feeling is Baltimore’s close-game luck from the last two weeks runs out against a Browns team that is still kinda, sorta still alive in the AFC playoff chase. Pick: Browns.

Atlanta at New Orleans (-4)

Welcome to the NFL, Desmond Ritter! The Falcons are making the move at a time when they are still, shockingly, still alive in the NFC South. The Saints are too (sort of) and a win coupled with a Bucs loss to Cincy could make things interesting. After a bye week to stew on blowing a late 13-point lead in Tampa, I expect a desperate New Orleans team to make life miserable for Ritter in his NFL debut. Pick: Saints.

Detroit at New York Jets (even)

Boy, oh boy, oh boy — the Detroit Lions are in the playoff chase! After a 1-6 start, Dan Campbell’s team is simply on fire right now and thinking postseason at 6-7. All the momentum in this matchup sits with the visitors, but lest we forget that the Lions may be looking across the field at their mirror image on Sunday. The Jets are 7-6 and still alive in the AFC playoff race, and Robert Saleh’s team has played hard every single week. Saleh, a Michigan native who many thought might be hired by the Lions, is confident that his team will turn things around — and call me crazy because I agree. The Lions may be due for a letdown after a huge win last week against Minnesota, and the Jets should have QB Mike White healthy enough to make the start. This game may be more about the Lions descending back to earth than anything else. Pick: Jets.

Philadelphia (-9) at Chicago

This could be the ultimate trap game for Philly with a trip to Dallas on deck and a Bears team with a rested Justin Fields. The Eagles look like an unstoppable force right now, but if ever there was a week to let their guard down, this is it. Nine is just enough points to feel comfortable picking the Bears for a gentlemanly cover. Pick: Bears.

Pittsburgh (buying to +3 at -135) at Carolina

Who would have thunk that the Panthers would suddenly be a game out of first place in the NFC South in Week 15? That just seems plain wrong, so I am going with the more trustworthy coach and team here despite its uncertainty at QB. It could even be Mason Rudolph in this one, but all the pressure is suddenly on a Carolina team fighting for a division title under Sam Darnold. My hunch is the Panthers eventually hit a speed bump, and a well-coached Steelers team seems like the perfect foil, especially considering that the Steelers are 3-0 against the NFC South thus far. Pick: Steelers.

Cincinnati (buying to -3 at -135) at Tampa Bay

So here’s the deal — the Bucs should win out after this game and take the NFC South at 9-8. That sounds about right for this pretty average Tampa team, but this is a tough spot with a hot Cincy club coming to town. The Bengals cannot afford to slip up here as their closing schedule is pretty tough, featuring New England, Buffalo, and Baltimore to close things out. The Bucs have been adept at bouncing back from ugly losses and while I do expect them to keep things respectable, I can’t see them putting up enough points to hang with a Bengals offense that is gaining steam every week. Pick: Bengals.

Tennessee at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

What has happened to the Titans? This physical, smash-mouth team has been getting pushed around lately, and suddenly winning the AFC South isn’t such a slam-dunk. The Chargers are getting healthy and should feel confident after beating Miami on Sunday night. While I expect Tennessee to keep this one closer than the last two weeks when they lost by a combined 39 points, I still like LA to keep their playoff push going at home. Pick: Chargers.

New York Giants at Washington (-4.5)

It seems like everyone saw this coming: the Giants are fading back to earth, and fast. These teams tied two weeks ago, but the Commanders have lost just once since Week 5 and are rested off a bye week. Taylor Heinecke gets another chance to shine in primetime vs. an NFC East rival as he did in mid-November in Philly, and the combination of a healthy Chase Young returning to play and a Washington team committing to running the ball against a soft New York rush defense makes me lean towards taking the home team here. Pick: Commanders.

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay (-7)

Holy Baker Mayfield, Batman! Where did that last-minute magic come from? The Rams will be extra rested going into this game, but the Packers are coming off a bye themselves and the rest could do a banged-up Aaron Rodgers good. My only logic for taking the home team here is that the Rams hit an emotional high-note in that Raiders win last Thursday. Pick: Packers.